While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.

It’s worth noting that under the new policy, more data will be simulated rather than collected from broader sources, there is still a significant degree of data collection. This was followed by the Consumer Sentiment report, which suggests that the economy may be gaining momentum again, as sentiment has risen and broken its recent downtrend.

Although many reports are still delayed due to the government shutdown, some essential releases have started to be prioritized. With the latest data now available, there is a lot of optimism that there will be further rate cuts upcoming.

Consumer Sentiment
The U.S. economy sped up in October during the ongoing government shutdown, new surveys show, but high tariffs were hurting exports, businesses said, casting a cloud over the upcoming year. S&P Global said its index of service companies, which employ most Americans, rose to a three-month high of 55.2 in October from 54.2 in the prior month. Any number above 50 signals expansion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 6.19%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.97%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
Next week’s tentative releases include the FOMC rate decision and the PCE Index, though the PCE report has been delayed by the government shutdown.

While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.

It’s worth noting that under the new policy, more data will be simulated rather than collected from broader sources, there is still a significant degree of data collection. This was followed by the Consumer Sentiment report, which suggests that the economy may be gaining momentum again, as sentiment has risen and broken its recent downtrend.

Although many reports are still delayed due to the government shutdown, some essential releases have started to be prioritized. With the latest data now available, there is a lot of optimism that there will be further rate cuts upcoming.

Consumer Sentiment
The U.S. economy sped up in October during the ongoing government shutdown, new surveys show, but high tariffs were hurting exports, businesses said, casting a cloud over the upcoming year. S&P Global said its index of service companies, which employ most Americans, rose to a three-month high of 55.2 in October from 54.2 in the prior month. Any number above 50 signals expansion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 6.19%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.97%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
Next week’s tentative releases include the FOMC rate decision and the PCE Index, though the PCE report has been delayed by the government shutdown.

The government has been facing a shutdown for the past 19 days with continued obstinacy from both parties, largely over healthcare subsidies.

As a result, there will be few major reports this week, the most notable being the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which indicates that the U.S. economy is once again showing signs of slowing.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also provided comments on the current inflation outlook, noting that multiple private and public data sources show inflation remains largely within projections. He added that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy stance despite the ongoing government shutdow. There is still another planned rate cut potentially this year.

Federal Reserve Beige Book
Reports from across the U.S. indicate sluggish economic conditions in much of the country, with only three of the Federal Reserve’s 12 district banks reporting expanding activity in their regions, according to the Federal Reverse’s latest “beige book” report. The remaining nine districts reported either flat or contracting economic activity.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 5.52%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 6.27%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.99%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
There are some expectations that the shutdown could end next week, and the CPI and PPI reports (key inflation reports) may potentially be on the horizon.

Due to the government shutdown, nearly all reports will be delayed aside from a few third party reports. The Consumer Sentiment report has been released on time and shows that consumers are still frustrated with the economy and increasingly high inflation. It is unknown when the government shutdown will end and when we will be seeing reports released again in a timely fashion. Interest rates will still be continued to be adjusted amidst the government shutdown.

Consumer Sentiment
Americans have soured on the prospect of finding new jobs, a new survey shows. They are also still frustrated by persistent inflation, giving them little confidence that the economy will improve soon. The first reading of the consumer sentiment survey in October was basically flat at 55.0, the University of Michigan said Friday. The index has been hovering at levels that are typically experienced during recessions.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 5.53%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
The CPI and PPI — key inflation reports — are tentatively scheduled to be released.

The release of key Unemployment Data was delayed last week due to administrative changes in how jobless figures are tracked. The Consumer Confidence report reflects these policy adjustments, showing growing concerns about the job market and a larger-than-expected decline in confidence for September.

Lastly, with tariff disruptions continuing to affect the manufacturing sector, the Global US Manufacturing data has revealed that production has slowed overall since the initial disruptions.

Manufacturing PMI
The latest survey showed a weaker gain in production, whilst new order book growth softened as tariffs continued to weigh on exports. Tariffs and broader policy uncertainty also dampened firms’ assessment of the business outlook, but expectations of manufacturing production reshoring and hopes of better demand in the year ahead meant sentiment remained positive overall.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence fell sharply in September on growing worries about the labor market. The consumer-confidence index dropped to 94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is the lowest level since April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rate at 5.55%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.34%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims
The unemployment data has been delayed, but expected claims are 222,000. The prior week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
The key releases next week will include major inflation reports — the CPI and PPI — along with the delayed Unemployment Data report. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will also be a notable release.

The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, has been on the rise but remains within expectations.

Although there was heavy speculation that this year’s inflation would spike due to impactful tariff policies, it has largely stayed within forecasts—enough for the Federal Reserve to introduce a 25 basis point rate cut.

The PCE Index data has shown this trend to continue. This is followed up closely by the Consumer Sentiment report which has been unstable due to significant inflation concerns, but has finally tempered itself after three straight months of consumer sentiment falling to yearly lows.

Finally, Consumer Spending reports show that spending remains strong, signaling that the U.S. economy is healthy and recovering from earlier tariff-related policies. Even so, there is ongoing speculation that the Federal Reserve has penciled in two additional rate cuts before the end of the year.

PCE Index
The PCE index rose 0.3% in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. The Fed gives more weight to the so-called core price index that omits food and gas. It rose a somewhat slower 0.2% and matched the Wall Street forecast.

Consumer Personal Spending
High tariffs, lingering inflation, and more trouble finding a job apparently haven’t thrown consumers into a funk. Americans increased spending again in August to help keep the U.S. economy chugging. Personal spending rose 0.6% last month for the third month in a row, the government said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 5.49%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.09%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.10%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
A lighter week overall, with the largest releases being the Consumer Credit, Consumer Sentiment, and U.S. Trade Deficit reports. There is also a scheduled FOMC Minutes, which will give a more definitive route on a potential plan for additional rate cuts this year.

It has been a relatively light week following the recent rate changes, as the Federal Reserve has felt the need to drop the current rate by 25 basis points. They have also mentioned the possibility of two additional rate cuts within this year. This follows the recent sharp criticism from the current administration, which condemned the Federal Reserve’s insistence on maintaining existing interest rates.

This development coincides with the Leading Economic Indicators, which have shown that the U.S. economy remains in decline, a trend that began in August. With further rate cuts on the horizon, the broader market reaction has been a positive one.

Consumer Price Index
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, the first rate move since last year, as it penciled in two more reductions for this year.

Leading Economic Indicators
US declined by 0.5% in August 2025 to 98.4 (2016=100), after a small 0.1% increase in July (upwardly revised from an originally reported 0.1% decline). The LEI fell by 2.8% over the six months between February and August 2025, a faster rate of decline than its 0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period (August 2024 to February 2025).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 6.26%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 240,000. The prior week landed at 264,000.

What’s Ahead
U.S. Employment data is set to land next week, with the S&P Final Manufacturing PMI estimates to round up before the end of the year. 

Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow.

Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment has hit another low in the last 4 months, as many have growing concerns about the state of the job market in addition to inflation continuing to grow. It is unknown how much the rate cuts will impact inflation, but so far the Federal Reserve has managed to maintain a delicate balance.

Consumer Price Index
The cost of living rose again in August at an accelerated pace, but probably not enough to discourage the Federal Reserve from reducing interest rates next week. The latest consumer price index (the main measure of U.S. inflation) could raise questions about how aggressively the Fed cuts rates, however, in the upcoming months. The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month, the government said Thursday. That was one tick above the Wall Street forecast.

Producer Price Index
The producer price index (PPI) dipped 0.1 percent on a month-on-month basis, according to Department of Labor data — when analysts had expected a 0.3-percent increase.

Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to a reading of 55.4 in September, a four-month low. The worsening of sentiment was particularly strong among lower and middle-income respondents.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10% for this week, with the current rate at 5.50%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.15%, with the current rate at 6.35%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.00%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 263,000 compared to the expected claims of 236,000. The prior week landed at 237,000.

What’s Ahead
The FOMC Rate Decision will be ahead next week, as well as the usual employment data.

The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation.

More recent data releases have shown that the economy is still on shaky ground after changes to tariff policies, leading things to be more unstable than anticipated. Trade deficits have also shown to have bounced back significantly from the prior months, while the manufacturing side are still showing impacts from the tariffs. Jobless Claims have also hit the highest levels since June, giving some concern to the broader labor market.

Trade Deficit
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.3 billion in July, up $19.2 billion from $59.1 billion in June, revised.

Manufacturing PMI
The trade wars are slowly dying down. The damage to American manufacturers is not. Industrial production fell in August for the sixth month in a row, according to an index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM surveys executives every month about how their businesses are doing.

Job Reports
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in the seven days ended Aug. 30 rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It is the highest level since late June. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated new claims would rise by 2,000 to 231,000.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.60%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with the current rate at 6.50%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 5.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 5.97%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 237,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead
Upcoming reports include the CPI and PPI inflation data, along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report, which will close out the week.

With the release of the PCE Index, inflation has shown to still be creeping upwards but there is significant speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue with their interest rate cut in the future. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report has been growing pessimistic amidst the job market, which has been shown to be in a pattern of cooling down.

This is offset by the strong growth by the GDP estimates for the second quarter, as it was initially predicted the tariff changes would have a significant impact on the GDP estimates, but the impact has been less prominent than expected.

PCE Index
A key measure of inflation rose in July at a rate that suggests persistent price pressures tied to higher U.S. tariffs, but the increase probably wasn’t big enough to dissuade the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next month. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumers’ views of the labor market cooled further in August, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Roughly 20% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get” in August, up from 18.9% in the prior month.

GDP Estimates Q2
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.5% contraction in Q1, according to second estimates. The figure was revised slightly higher from the first estimate of 3%, mainly due to upward revisions to investment (5.7% vs 1.9% in the first estimate) and consumer spending (1.6% vs 1.4% in the first estimate) that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending (-0.2% vs 0.4% in the first estimate) and an upward revision to imports (-29.8% vs -30.3% in the first estimate). 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw no change for this week, with the current rate at 5.69%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, with the current rate at 6.56%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.06%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.08%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 234,000.

What’s Ahead
Trade Balance will be the most notable release next week indicating the impact of tariffs, followed up by the Nonfarm Payrolls and employment data. Manufacturing PMI and Beige book will offer a backdrop of information.