With the holiday season coming to a conclusion, there was little in the way of data releases. Last week, the main reports were the Chicago Business Barometer and the ISM Manufacturing Index, both indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector. This comes as we await the upcoming administration change at the White House. The impact of this is relatively minimal, with lending rates continuing their downward trend. Next week we will be expecting the year-over-year for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), wrapping up 2024.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped further to 36.9 in December 2024, compared to November’s 40.2 and missing market forecasts of 42.5.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.13%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 6.91%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.42%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 211,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

Both the year-over-year reports for the CPI and PPI as well as the first reports of inflation data for 2025 is on the release schedule.

With Christmas concluding the prior week, there were few reports other than Consumer Confidence, which had come in slightly below expectations. This should prove to have little impact, especially in the following week. With the New Year on the horizon, there are no reports other than the Chicago Manufacturing output report for the entire week. Happy Holidays!

Consumer Confidence

A post-election pop in consumer confidence fizzled at the end of the year, owing to worries about the U.S. stock market and a potentially higher cost of living as a result of new tariffs. The index of consumer confidence dropped 8.1 points to a three-month low of 104.7 in December, the privately run Conference Board said Monday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% with the current rate at 6.00%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.85%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.46%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

Chicago PMI Report will be the only release for next week.

The rate cut by the Federal Reserve was hotly anticipated, and as predicted, they proceeded with the reduction, signaling the possibility of further cuts depending on inflation data. Although markets were generally receptive to the positive news, other government-related issues had dampened the high spirits temporarily. Outside of the rate decision, the PCE Index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator) has performed positively by beating the forecast. In addition, the Consumer Sentiment was exactly where it should be as expected.

PCE Index

The PCE index increased a scant 0.1% last month, the government said Friday. That’s the smallest rise in three months and just half as much as economists polled by The Wall Street Journal predicted. The barometer of U.S. inflation favored by the Federal Reserve rose more slowly than expected in November, breaking what appears to be a gradual drift higher in prices that forced the central bank to scale back plans to cut interest rates.

FOMC Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter point, the third rate cut since it began to lower borrowing costs in September. The central bank’s latest move leaves its benchmark lending rate at a range of 4.25%-4.5%, a two-year low.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% with the current rate at 5.92%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.12% with the current rate at 6.72%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.42%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.43%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 242,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.

What’s Ahead

With an extremely light release schedule ahead of Christmas, the jobs release data will be the only important release.

Last week featured a light release schedule, with the key highlights being the CPI and PPI reports. The CPI has proven to be exactly within expectations, signaling the Federal Reserve should be on track for another planned rate cut. However, this was offset by higher-than-expected PPI inflation. Despite these mixed signals, both indicators show stable trends, and overall inflation appears to be moving toward the Federal Reserve’s target. The Federal Reserve remains committed to reducing inflation until their goal is achieved.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices rose in November at the fastest pace in seven months. Still, the latest inflation report is probably not hot enough to sidetrack the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again next week. The consumer price index climbed 0.3% last month — in line with Wall Street forecasts — to match the biggest increase since April.

Producer Price Index

The less volatile core measure of the producer-price index rose a scant 0.1% last month, the government said Thursday. That was a tick below the Wall Street forecast. Prices for final demand advanced 3.0% for the 12 months ended in November.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.12% with the current rate at 5.84%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% with the current rate at 6.60%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.20% for this week. Current rates at 6.32%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.20% for this week. Current rates at 6.33%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 242,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.

What’s Ahead

A slightly busier schedule just before the end of the year, with many larger reports including the last of the GDP Estimates, Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI for the year, Personal Income & Spending, and the last Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan.

With the CPI and PPI scheduled for release in the upcoming week, the previous week was lightly peppered with a small amount of impactful financial data releases. The highlight was the S&P Manufacturing PMI, which reported final numbers for the year showing better-than-expected improvements in the manufacturing sector. Unemployment data also aligned with expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut remaining on track. Lastly, the Consumer Credit Report had the expected jump just before the Holiday Season as consumers relied on credit to make holiday purchases for the end of the year.

S&P PMI Final

Input cost inflation slowed further, reaching its lowest rate in a year. Meanwhile, output prices increased at a slightly faster pace. The seasonally adjusted S&P PMI stayed below the neutral 50.0 mark, recording 49.7, which indicates only a slight decline in the sector’s health for the month. This was an improvement from October’s 48.5 reading and marked the highest level in the current five-month trend of weakening business conditions.

Unemployment Report

The economy added a seemingly solid 227,000 new jobs in November, but much of the gain was tied to temporary influences instead of resurgence in weakening U.S. labor market. The rebound in hiring followed a paltry 36,000 increase in new jobs in October, when a strike at Boeing and a pair of major hurricanes depressed employment.

Consumer Credit

Total U.S. consumer credit surged in October, rising by $19.2 billion compared to a $3.2 billion gain in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Friday. This marked the fastest growth since July, reflecting a 4.5% annualized growth rate, up significantly from the 0.8% increase in the previous month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.14% with the current rate at 5.96%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.12% with the current rate at 6.69%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.12%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.13%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 215,000.

What’s Ahead

A light week, with the largest reports being the Consumer Price Index and Price Producer Index. These have historically been the most impactful reports for inflation.

Leading off with the FOMC Minutes, the Federal Reserve has stated once again they will maintain a “gradual” approach to cutting interest rates, which has aligned with their goals of meeting their target 2% inflation goal. The PCE Index release numbers, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, have shown everything is within expectations. So while the rate cuts may be a gradual process, there is much optimism that they are coming.  Following those reports were the Personal Income Spending, GDP Estimates, and Consumer Confidence pending the holidays. Both the Persona Income and Spending have shown very strong results ahead of the holidays with the income beating expectations. This is met by extremely strong confidence coming from consumers as we see a 16-month high. This is finally corroborated by the GDP revisions which have shown the economy has shown steady growth for the entirety of the year.

PCE Index

The rate of inflation rose in October and moved further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, confirming a recent uptick in prices that could cajole the central bank into cutting interest rates less aggressively. The Federal Reserve’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index climbed 0.2% last month for the second month in a row, the government reported Wednesday.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence reached a 16-month high in November, as Americans grew more optimistic about 2025. This optimism was fueled by rising stock prices, easing inflation, and a strong U.S. job market. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index increased to 111.7 in November, up from a revised 109.6 in October, marking its highest level since mid-2023.

Personal Income/Spending

Consumer spending grew at a solid pace in October, driving a U.S. economic expansion that shows no signs of slowing as 2024 comes to a close. According to government data, household spending increased by 0.4% last month, while personal income rose by 0.6%, aligning with Wall Street expectations. Additionally, spending in September was significantly stronger than originally reported.

GDP Estimates

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, according to revised figures, suggesting it entered the crucial holiday shopping season with strong momentum.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% with the current rate at 6.10%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% with the current rate at 6.81%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.23% for this week. Current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.23% for this week. Current rates at 6.24%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 213,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

The schedule is fairly packed, featuring key reports such as the Final Manufacturing PMI, which will reflect the year’s production performance, along with non-farm payrolls, hourly earnings, the unemployment rate, consumer credit data, and the year-end Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan.

Following the election results, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report painted a less-than-stellar picture, reflecting stagnation in sentiment. The prior week was relatively light, aside from the Consumer Sentiment data. However, the S&P PMI Industrial Numbers provided a brighter outlook, indicating some acceleration in manufacturing activity as the holiday season approaches. Looking ahead, the coming week is expected to deliver more significant data on inflation, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the PCI Index.

PMI Services Index

The economy sped up in November and kept the U.S. on track for another strong quarter of growth, fueled by optimism about falling interest rates and the prospect of a pro-business Trump administration. The first reading of the S&P U.S. Service Sector Index climbed to a 32-month high of 57.0 in November from 55 in the prior month.

Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers. Consumer sentiment continued to rise, according to the final November report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 1.3 points (1.3%) from October’s final reading to 71.8. The latest reading was below the forecast of 73.0.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% with the current rate at 6.02%

• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 6.84%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%

• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase 0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%

Initial Claims were reported to be 213,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

As the holiday season approaches, next week’s most significant report will center on the PCE Index. Additional reports, including Personal Income & Spending data and the final GDP estimates for the year, will follow.

With the release of the latest CPI and PPI data, inflation has increased month-to-month for the first time since March, marking the first rise in over seven months. The Federal Reserve has reiterated its goal of reducing inflation to a 2% target within a year. While this development doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent interest rate hike, it suggests that current rates may remain unchanged for an extended period. Earlier optimism about a potential rate cut by the end of the year has significantly diminished in light of recent inflation figures and economic data. However, Retail Sales data presents a more positive outlook, showing continued economic growth ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Consumer Price Index

The consumer price index climbed 0.2% for the fourth month in a row, the government said Wednesday, matching the Wall Street forecast. The yearly rate of inflation crept up to 2.6% from 2.4%, marking the first upturn in seven months.

Producer Price Index

The PPI data met expectations overall but revealed that U.S. wholesale prices rose slightly faster in October. This suggests the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation back to low pre-pandemic levels may take longer than anticipated. Federal Reserve officials have described the recent uptick in inflation as a ‘bump,’ which could hinder the central bank from reducing high interest rates as quickly as Wall Street had hoped just a few months ago.

Retail Sales

Sales at retailers rose solidly in October and suggested the economy still has plenty of momentum heading into the holiday shopping season. Sales increased 0.4% last month, the government said Friday, and receipts in September were twice as strong as previously reported.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 5.99%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.78%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.09% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.07% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.39%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 221,000.

What’s Ahead

Preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI will be early on the release schedule marking the first large end-of-the-year preliminary report. Following that immediately is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report.

Big inflation reports for the coming week with both CPI and PPI on the schedule. We should expect the data to remain within expectations given the latest reports from both the PCE Index and GDP estimates. The Federal Reserve has still remained hawkish and the last rate decision the expectation is the current rates should maintain. However with the inflation being very close to the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate and the expected “soft landing” on the horizon. The outlook is optimistic for another round of rate cuts in future.

Federal Reserve Rate Decision

In the face of slowing inflation and strong consumer spending, the Federal Reserve announced that it will keep the interest rate steady, holding the benchmark borrowing rate to a range of 5.2%5 to 5.5%.

Consumer Credit

The numbers: The amount of borrowing by U.S. consumers in September rose a scant 1.4%, but the increase was tied mostly to student loans as Americans scale back on the use of credit cards. Consumer credit increased by $6.0 billion in September, Federal Reserve data showed. Economists had expected a $13 billion increase, according to a Wall Street Journal forecast.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

?15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week change of 0.01% with the current rate at 6.00%.
?30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week change of 0.07% with the current rate at 6.79%

MND Rate Index

?30-Yr FHA rates week to week seeing a -0.32% change for this week. Current rates at 6.30%
?30-Yr VA  rates week to week seeing a -0.32% change for this week. Current rates at 6.32%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 221,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week was 218,000.

What’s Ahead

Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index inflation ahead. There are no other influential reports on the schedule.

This week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data was released, and the results met expectations. This, along with recent GDP estimates, employment reports, and personal income/spending figures, paints a stable economic picture. It suggests that we may be on track for the Federal Reserve’s next round of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has consistently stated its 2% inflation target and current figures show inflation at 2.1%. This indicates that a ‘soft landing’ for the economy could be within reach.

PCI Index

Prices in the U.S. rose modestly in September, but not enough to suggest inflation is rekindling or to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. The Fed’s preferred PCE index moved up 0.2% last month, the government said Thursday. That matched the forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The increase in inflation in the past 12 months slowed to 2.1% from 2.3%, leaving it just a hair above the Fed’s 2% target.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending and incomes both rose in September, signaling continued strength in the primary driver of the U.S. economy. Household spending increased by a solid 0.5% for the month, surpassing the 0.4% rise economists had anticipated in a Wall Street Journal poll. Incomes also grew by 0.3% in September. Overall, consumer spending surged by 3.7% in the third quarter, marking the largest increase in a year and a half.

GDP (Estimates)

The U.S. grew at a brisk 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter, powered by another sharp increase in consumer spending that appears primed to extend a four-year-old economic expansion into next year.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.28% with the current rate at 5.99%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.18% with the current rate at 6.72%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.26% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.62%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.26% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.64%
  

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 216,000 compared to the expected claims of 228,000. The prior week landed at 227,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week, the Federal Reserve is set to announce another rate decision, followed by several other important reports. These include final manufacturing figures from S&P Global PMI data, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, and Consumer Credit reports.