With the release of the PCE Index, inflation has shown to still be creeping upwards but there is significant speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue with their interest rate cut in the future. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report has been growing pessimistic amidst the job market, which has been shown to be in a pattern of cooling down.

This is offset by the strong growth by the GDP estimates for the second quarter, as it was initially predicted the tariff changes would have a significant impact on the GDP estimates, but the impact has been less prominent than expected.

PCE Index
A key measure of inflation rose in July at a rate that suggests persistent price pressures tied to higher U.S. tariffs, but the increase probably wasn’t big enough to dissuade the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next month. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumers’ views of the labor market cooled further in August, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Roughly 20% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get” in August, up from 18.9% in the prior month.

GDP Estimates Q2
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.5% contraction in Q1, according to second estimates. The figure was revised slightly higher from the first estimate of 3%, mainly due to upward revisions to investment (5.7% vs 1.9% in the first estimate) and consumer spending (1.6% vs 1.4% in the first estimate) that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending (-0.2% vs 0.4% in the first estimate) and an upward revision to imports (-29.8% vs -30.3% in the first estimate). 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw no change for this week, with the current rate at 5.69%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, with the current rate at 6.56%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.06%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.08%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 234,000.

What’s Ahead
Trade Balance will be the most notable release next week indicating the impact of tariffs, followed up by the Nonfarm Payrolls and employment data. Manufacturing PMI and Beige book will offer a backdrop of information.

The FOMC meeting that was held the previous week to discuss upcoming decisions addressed the future of the economic landscape.

During his remarks, Jerome Powell stated that inflation will rise in the future, with consumers bearing the burden. Many have speculated that this means reductions in current rates are unlikely to happen anytime soon, in an attempt to keep inflation under control.

Another notable release was the leading economic indicators, which once again showed contraction—signaling the potential for further economic decline.

Leading Economic Indicators
The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the US inched down by 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7 (2016=100), after declining by 0.3% in June. The LEI fell by 2.7% over the six months between January and July 2025, a faster rate of decline than its –1.0% contraction over the previous six-month period (July 2024 to January 2025).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 5.69%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw no change from last week, with the current rate at 6.58%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% this week. Current rates at 6.11%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% this week. Current rates at 6.13%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 235,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.

What’s Ahead
PCI Index inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is set for next week. Other notable releases will be the GDP Estimates for the second half of the year, Personal Income & Spending, Consumer Sentiment, and Retail Inventories.

This marks the first release of CPI and PPI data since the recent reduction in data collection that is used to determine the current inflation. The Producer Price Index has shown quite clearly that there has been the biggest whole price jump in the last 3 years, showing that the administration’s policies on tariffs are having an impact. The CPI has shown a similar increase in inflation, but still within expectations in lieu of the current tariff policies. 

There is still data to be collected, with some speculation that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in the future. Consumer sentiment has also shown increased concern regarding inflation and unemployment statistics, as trends have worsened following the tariff changes, leading to a three-month low in consumer sentiment.

Consumer Price Index
A key measure of consumer prices posted the biggest increase in July in six months, suggesting inflation is showing upward pressure from tariffs but maybe not enough to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates soon. The so-called core rate of the consumer price index rose 0.3% in July to mark the biggest increase since the first month of the year. The core rate omits food and energy and is a better predictor of future inflation.

Producer Price Index
The cost of wholesale goods and services—where rising inflation tends to show up first—posted the biggest increase in July in three years, possibly heralding a sizable acceleration in price hikes tied to U.S. tariffs. The producer-price index jumped 0.9% last month after no change in June, the government said Thursday. The surge was a big surprise to Wall Street.

Consumer Sentiment
Fresh worries about inflation soured Americans on the economy in early August, underscoring lingering anxiety about the highest U.S. tariffs in decades and a further rise in unemployment. The first reading of the consumer-sentiment survey in August dropped to a three-month low of 57.2 from 61.8 in July, the University of Michigan said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% with the current rate at 5.71%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05% with the current rate at 6.58%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% this week. Current rates at 6.18%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% this week. Current rates at 6.19%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 229,000. The prior week landed at 226,000.

What’s Ahead
FOMC Minutes will give an indication where the Federal Reserve decides to still hold their “wait-and-see” approach. This will be followed by the PMI Manufacturing and Services data, relevant to the tariff changes.

The major report to look out for was the Trade Balance, which has decreased more than expected, suggesting that the current administration’s policies are having an impact. However, the long-term impact on the economy as a whole remain to be seen. This was followed closely by consumer credit, which came in far lower than expected, though many are predicting that consumer credit usage will grow over time. While the labor market remains constrained, the consumer market has remained stable in spite of the uncertainty brought on by the tariff policies.

Trade Balance
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $60.2 billion in June, down $11.5 billion from $71.7 billion in May, revised.

Consumer Credit
Revolving credit, mainly credit cards, declined for the second straight month in June, the Federal Reserve said. Revolving credit fell at a 1% rate in June after a 3.5% drop in the prior month. Declines in credit-card borrowing are rare: The last time revolving credit fell for two straight months was during the COVID pandemic in 2020.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10% with the current rate at 5.75%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% with the current rate at 6.63%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% this week. Current rates at 6.15%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% this week. Current rates at 6.16%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 226,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 219,000.

What’s Ahead
A heavy week with the next round of inflation data being released with both the CPI and PPI reports. It should be noted that this CPI will feature less recorded data, relying more on estimations. In addition, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Treasury Budget should prove to be impactful data releases.

There were several notable releases this last week, with the largest being the PCE Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The PCE Index may be the more accurate indicator going forward, as data collection for the Consumer Price Index has been recently cut, thereby reducing its reliability. As expected, the inflation numbers have been steadily rising with the PCE Index, indicating that impacts from the tariffs are now filtering into prices for both producers and consumers.

As a follow up, Personal Income & Spending has had a light upturn after the initial panic with the tariffs. Lastly, the job numbers from last week have been unexpectedly weak, showing a slow down of the economy overall due to many factors.

PCE Index
A key measure of inflation posted the biggest increase in four months in June as the delayed effects of higher U.S. tariffs began to filter through the economy, raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. It was the biggest increase since February.

Personal Spending & Income
Americans spent more money in June after U.S. trade wars began to simmer down, but they were cautious spenders amid all the turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s tariffs. Personal spending increased 0.3% last month, the government said Thursday, and partly recovered from a soft patch in May and April.

Employment Reports
The U.S. only added 19,000 jobs in May compared to an initial report of 144,000, and only 14,000 in June after an initial report of 147,000, according to the BLS. Those two paltry totals, plus a July jobs gain of 73,000, means the U.S. added just 106,000 jobs over the past three months.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 5.85%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.72%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.17% this week. Current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.16% this week. Current rates at 6.24%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 222,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week will be a fairly light week, with the most significant releases being the Trade Balance as well as the Services PMI reports.

Very little was released this week due to the major inflation data releases from the previous week. The Leading Economic Index was the most significant—and only—impactful release this week, showing a further decline in overall sentiment about the current economic situation. The majority of the decline was largely driven by expectations for business conditions. The decline was faster than expected, enough to warrant continued monitoring of the Leading Economic Index going forward.

Leading Economic Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8, after no change in May (revised upward from -0.1% originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the -1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% with the current rate at 5.87%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 6.74%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 227,000. The prior week was 221,000.

What’s Ahead
Personal Income & Spending and PCE Prices will lead the way for data releases next week. Followed up by the Nonfarm Payrolls giving a strong indicator of where the economy is headed for the average consumer.

While inflation has slowed down since the pandemic, it is showing a faster-than-expected rise for consumers, as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has reported a higher than expected 0.3% increase, contrasted to the 0.2% expected increase.

Meanwhile, the PPI (Producer Price Index) has proven to be entirely flat, with the largest takeaway being that signs of tariff-related inflation are — at best — scattered among data reports, leading to many speculating that the impacts have been overestimated.

Given continued inflation for consumers, it is very unlikely the Federal Reserve will make any adjustments to the rate as it adopts a “wait-and-see” approach to the administration’s policies. Another noteworthy data release is retail sales, which has shown to snap back after the concerns about tariffs and widespread price increases have eased.

Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices in June posted the biggest increase since the beginning of the year and are likely to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates later this month, but there were only scattered signs of tariff-related inflation. The consumer-price index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Tuesday, and matched Wall Street’s forecast. It was the biggest rise since January.

Producer Price Index
Wholesale prices were unchanged in June and showed only a mild effect from U.S. tariffs, adding to the growing view that trade wars won’t lead to a big surge in inflation. The flat reading in the producer-price index came in below the Wall Street forecast of a 0.2% increase.

Retail Sales
Receipts at retail cash registers rose 0.6% last month, the government said Thursday, based on seasonally adjusted numbers. That was three times the Wall Street estimate.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rates at 5.92%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.75%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 221,000 compared to the expected claims of 234,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.

What’s Ahead
After inflation reports, there will only be the Leading Indicators report in the schedule for next week.

This was an extremely light release week with only the Consumer Credit Report. The amount of expected credit was expected to rise but only showed half the growth — a sign that things are still in stable condition. The most important reports will be featured with next week’s releases of inflation data in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige book. The Trump Administration has also further extended the pauses on the tariffs which has been a welcome relief.

Consumer Credit
Total U.S. consumer credit growth slowed to a $5.1 billion gain in May, down from a $16.9 billion rise in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. That translates to a 1.2% annual rate in May, down from a 4% rise in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rates at 5.86%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rates at 6.72%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.08% for this week, with the current rates at 6.35%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.08% for this week, with the current rates at 6.37%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 227,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and the Beige Book will be huge determining factors on the direction of decisions for the Federal Reserve.

With next week featuring both the CPI and PPI reports, the release schedule for this upcoming week will be extremely light. This previous week featured a small number of notable data releases. First being the trade deficit which has shown a sharp decline due to the tariff policies, but has increased again with the pause on tariffs. The manufacturing sector has seen growth as well with the PMI Manufacturing data, but inflation also proves to have grown just as much. Lastly, employment numbers have shown a stronger than expected labor market, but there are still expectations that things will cool further.

Manufacturing PMI
The headline index from the report, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, improved to 52.9 in June, from 52.0 in May. The latest reading was the highest since May 2022, and indicative of a solid rate of expansion. It was also the sixth successive month in which the PMI has posted above the critical 50.0 no-change mark.

Manufacturers recorded a first rise in production for four months. Growth was the second-steepest since March 2024, surpassed only by February’s near three-year record.

Employment Data
The U.S. added a decent 147,000 jobs in June, pointing to resilience in the labor market. But the pace of hiring has slowed since last year as businesses grapple with trade wars and the crackdown on immigration. About half of the new jobs were created by state and local governments, taking some shine off a seemingly solid report. The private sector only added 74,000 jobs, marking the smallest increase in eight months.

Trade Deficit
The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rates at 5.80%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.10% for this week, with the current rates at 6.67%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rates at 6.27%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week, with the current rates at 6.29%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 233,000 compared to the expected claims of 240,000. The prior week landed at 237,000.

What’s Ahead
An extremely light release week with nothing of note. The following week will feature inflation data with the CPI and PPI reports.

With the passing of the previous busy weeks of rate decisions, this week features the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report in the PCE Index, which has shown that inflation has come in hotter than expected for the month of May. This likely cements the Federal Reserve’s decision to take no action until later and further confirming most economists’ predictions. The consumer confidence has also taken a hit as it has further declined again for the month of May, indicating there is still significant apprehension within the markets and consumers alike. This is accompanied by Consumer Spending data, which met expectations, as many consumers had already begun pulling back on spending in response to tariff policies before many of those measures were paused.

PCE Index
In an updated forecast, Federal Reserve officials now expect inflation, as measured by the core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, to jump to 3.1% by the end of the year, up from a rate of 2.5% in April.

Consumer Spending
Americans cut spending in May after buying lots of new cars and other goods earlier in the year to beat U.S. tariffs, underscoring how ongoing trade wars are disrupting the economy. Personal spending fell 0.1% last month, the government said Friday. It was the first decline since January.

Consumer Sentiment
The ongoing trade wars haven’t faded from public view. Consumer confidence fell in June, as Americans grew more pessimistic about the future of the economy and their ability to find a job. The index of consumer confidence declined to 93 last month from 98.4 in May, when the Trump administration dialed back the highest U.S. tariffs.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week, with the current rates at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.77%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.19% for this week, with the current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.19% for this week, with the current rates at 6.23%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 236,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 246,000.

What’s Ahead
Non-farm Payrolls, Job Data, Manufacturing PMI Data will be the largest reports out for next week. The most important data reflecting the impact of tariffs has already been released.