Currently, the Retail Sales Report is the sole report that has weight. With the passage of more optimistic inflation data reports, retail sales coming in slightly under expectations will have little to no bearing on the overall outlook. Given the last major reports indicating the economy’s health and state of inflation, there is more optimism toward a potential rate cut this year. Lending partners have still been quick to continue cutting rates.

Consumer Price Index

Sales at U.S. retailers barely rose in May, suggesting Americans are feeling the weight of lingering inflation and high interest rates. Sales edged up 0.1% last month. They had been forecast to rise 0.2%, based on a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.13%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.87%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.49%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 238,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 243,000.

What’s Ahead

One of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data points will be released next week in the PCE Prices Report, followed closely by the Chicago PMI and the Univ. Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports. 

A welcome and unexpected data release for both the PPI and CPI shows inflation expectations coming in lower than expected. The positive news was somewhat mitigated by the hawkish FOMC rate decision that also took place during the same week. Still, there is more optimism given that the data releases in the past 30 days have shown signs of inflation coming under control. At the very least, it suggests that the Federal Reserve’s policy to keep inflation under control has been effective. As a result, lending partners have quickly cut rates again after the meeting this week.

Consumer Price Index

The cost of consumer goods and services were unchanged in May for the first time in almost two years, suggesting the resurgence in inflation earlier in the year might be petering out. The flat reading in the Consumer Price Index last month was below the forecast for a 0.1% increase, based on a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal.

Produce Price Index

U.S. wholesale prices fell in May for the second time in three months (thanks partly to lower gas prices), perhaps another sign that the upturn in inflation earlier this year is fading. The Producer Price Index dropped 0.2% last month, the government said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 0.1%.

FOMC Rate Decision

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was tight-lipped at his press conference Wednesday, having been stung previously by too much optimism. The Federal Reserve remained hawkish throughout the conference and maintained current interest rates.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.12% with the current rate at 6.17%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.95%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.20% for this week. Current rates at 6.44%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.20% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 242,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead

The proceeding weeks for FOMC rate decisions and inflation data reports are typically light. Next week has a higher-than-expected amount of influential releases. The lineup includes Retail Sales and the official S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI numbers, giving us a clear indicator of the state of manufacturing for the U.S.

With the CPI and PPI reports coming up this week, the previous week was light on reports of any significance. Most notable was the Non-Farm Payrolls which can have an outsized impact on inflation data reporting, as it’s a useful barometer to compare the cost of goods to the payroll of the average consumer. Following that is the ISM Manufacturing Index which came in slightly under expectations. Lastly, the JOLTS Job Openings is a minor indicator, but useful for seeing the state of the job market.

Non-Farm Payrolls

Wages are growing by about 4%. The Federal Reserve wants to see annual worker pay increase slow to 3% or less to help the central bank return U.S. inflation to low pre-pandemic norms. However, it’s not seeing much progress lately.

JOLTS Job Openings

The number of job openings in the U.S. sank in April to a more than three-year low of 8.1 million, another sign the labor market is cooling off as the economy slows.

ISM Manufacturing Index

A key barometer of U.S. factories fell to a three-month low as new orders waned and businesses were reluctant to invest due to high interest rates. “The manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.07% with the current rate at 6.29%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.99%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.64%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.12% for this week. Current rates at 6.65%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 221,000.

What’s Ahead

With the CPI and PPI data releases this week, the rest of the week is very light on other data. All eyes are on the most defining inflation data reports across all markets. The Federal Reserve may have its favorite with the PCE Index, but many others, including lending partners, prefer to use the CPI and PPI as their barometer for inflation.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data, the PCE Index, was the highlight of this week. These were followed up loosely by trade balance, retail inventories, and GDP — all of which are strong secondary indicators for current inflation.

For lending partners and those affiliated with broader markets, inflation is the key determining factor for rate adjustments, and other data at this point has a nominal impact in comparison. It does appear the Federal Reserve wants to have a strong hand towards inflation and will be careful about cutting rates even this year. 

The broader market is holding such expectations as well. As a side note, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book still shows signs that the economy is going strong, but businesses are showing reservations about the current interest rates.

PCE Index

April PCE shows the smallest increase in ‘core’ inflation this year. Prices in the U.S. rose again in April, the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index found, but a recent surge in inflation in early 2024 may have also shown signs of fading. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.

Federal Reserve’s Beige Book

A Federal Reserve survey found that the U.S. economy expanded in the late spring, but persistent inflation, high interest rates, and political uncertainty caused businesses to turn “somewhat more pessimistic.” The latest findings in the Beige Book suggest the economy is unlikely to speed up until inflation slows further and the Fed can cut high U.S. interest rates.

GDP

The U.S. economy grew at a lackluster 1.3% annual pace in the first three months of the year, revised figures show, largely because of softer consumer spending that could herald a broader slowdown in the economy. The increase in gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was the smallest in almost two years. Previously the government reported that GDP had expanded at a 1.6% rate in the first quarter.

Consumer Confidence

The U.S. index of consumer confidence rebounded to 102 in May from a revised 97.5 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is the first increase in the index after three straight monthly declines.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.12% with the current rate at 6.36%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.09% with the current rate at 7.03%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.75%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.77%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 218,000. The prior week landed at 216,000.

What’s Ahead

We should expect several interim reports; and while they do not impact inflation data the most, they are still relevant. The top reports will come from Non-farm payrolls and unemployment numbers. The more minor reports will be shown in the manufacturing data with PMI and ISM numbers. The next CPI and PPI release is the week after that, which also has the largest impact on rate decisions, even if the Federal Reserve would like to use the PCE Index as their preferred data.

The Consumer Sentiment Report was the sole important report to take place the prior week, keeping with the  trend of the cooling-off period that happens the weeks following the CPI and PPI data releases.

Consumer sentiment this time around has come to be slightly below expectations and falling to a 6-month low, marking a great change in overall sentiment towards the clear trend in rising costs in goods and services. It is largely expected that the Federal Reserve, even with the recent improvement in data, will maintain its stance at holding rates at the current position until a later date this year.

Consumer Price Index

A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in six months in May on expectations of higher inflation, according to a survey released Friday. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment index was 69.1 in May, a sharp decline from 77.2 in April, the University of Michigan said. The final reading was slightly higher than the initial estimate of 67.4.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.24%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.94%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.70%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.72%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 223,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric PCE Index Prices, but the more impactful metric has largely always been the CPI and PPI reports. There will also be the release of the Chicago PMI report which will headline manufacturing data and the current state of the manufacturing industry. Tailing up the two major reports is the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

The prior week showed a surprising display of inflation,  in that for consumers, it was less than expected. This is giving way to some optimism that inflation is on the right track to being under control.

On the other end of the spectrum, for producers, inflation had shown to be slightly higher than expected. But the far higher impact of the two reports is the Consumer Price Index. 

The Federal Reserve had still stuck to their stance as from the last FOMC opting to withhold any rate reduction decisions until late in the year, but the data coming in largely on a positive note has changed the previously highly negative outlooks into a neutral stance.

Consumer Price Index

The cost of consumer goods and services rose 0.3% in April, largely because of higher oil prices and housing costs, as inflation remained elevated in key parts of the economy. Yet the increase in the consumer price index last month fell below the 0.4% forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Producer Price Index

U.S. wholesale prices jumped 0.5% in April in another sign of sticky inflation. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a smaller 0.3% increase in the producer price index.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.10% with the current rate at 6.28%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.07% with the current rate at 7.02%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing no change for this week. Current rates at 6.62%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing no change for this week. Current rates at 6.64%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead

Extremely light week ahead after the inflation data releases. Heading up the most influential releases, the FOMC minutes will be highlighting potential plans for the future of rate decisions, among the regular job data releases.

An extremely light week following the FOMC, with the only note-worthy reporting being the Consumer Sentiment reports from the University of Michigan, which gives a long term outlook of the consumer on the economy. The report has come in well under expectations, much more so than any previous release in the last 6 months. This is largely due to the increase in the cost of living for every sector.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.4 in a preliminary May reading, down from 77.2 in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.09% with the current rate at 6.38%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.13% with the current rate at 7.09%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.08% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.62%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.08% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.64%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week we’re expecting new rounds of inflation data from CPI and PPI reports. Given the current data that has been released, the inflation problem is expected to still be a small sticking issue. 

Week in Review

With the passing of the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision panel, we now have definitively confirmed that the Federal Reserve intends to keep the rates at a two-decade high, for the sixth straight meeting by a unanimous vote. Jerome Powell had stated during the Q&A that they do not intend to cut rates until they have confidence that inflation will, “sustainably stay lower than the 2% objective.”

Lending partners have responded in kind by a rush in an increase of rates the last three weeks in a row, with expectations tempered about impending rate cuts any time soon.  Markets across the board have experienced a cooling off as a result. Manufacturing has seen a slow trend downwards since the start of the year as reflected in the recent PMI and ISM data releases.

FOMC

Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to leave the benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Decision is unanimous for the 15th straight meeting.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence fell in April for the third straight month and touched a 21-month low due to the high cost of food and gas and fresh worries about the jobs market. The consumer-confidence index sank to 97.0 this month from a revised 103.1 in March, the Conference Board said Tuesday. That’s the lowest level since July 2022.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped sharply to 37.9 in April. That is the lowest level since November 2022.

ISM

The Institute for Supply Management said Friday that its service-sector PMI dropped sharply to 49.4% in April from 51.4% in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.03% with the current rate at 6.47%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% with the current rate at 7.22%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.25% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.70%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.24% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.72%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 208,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 207,000.

What’s Ahead

An extremely light week following the FOMC. The only expectation is weekly jobless claims data and consumer credit reports. 

At Wednesday’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision comes amidst conflicting economic signals. Tailing that, there is the Chicago PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the full release of the Consumer Confidence report. All of these are expected to match current economic conditions.

The prior week’s GDP numbers also factor into the equation, informing that economic growth has slowed this year compared to the previous year for Quarter 1. The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred choice of inflation indicators, has shown inflation is within expectations but the whole picture is clear.

PCI Index

Prices in the U.S. jumped again in March based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, signaling that progress on reducing inflation has stalled. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.

GDP

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the U.S. economy is “firing on all cylinders” even as the GDP report showed economic growth coming in well below economists expectations.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% with the current rate at 6.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.07% with the current rate at 7.17%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.03% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.96%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

Prior to the most recent data reports, there was high optimism that the Federal Reserve would cut rates this Wednesday. With a clear picture with data to back it up, those initial expectations have tempered significantly.

Last week, the largest report was the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, leading into chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaking on the current state of the economy and the stance of the Federal Reserve. While the Beige Book has indicated some positive movement towards a strong economy, there have been many indicators from all inflation data that inflation has yet to be tamed to the standards of the Federal Reserve. 

This was punctuated by Jerome Powell, as he discussed at length the Federal Reserve has yet to feel inflation is under control. This has dispelled all notion there will be a rate cut in the future and likewise a strong reaction from lending partners and markets across the economy.

Beige Book

The U.S. economy grew slightly faster in the early spring and businesses added more workers, a Federal Reserve survey found, but there was little progress in lowering inflation.

The latest findings in the so-called Beige Book match the assessment of top Fed officials, who in recent weeks pointed to a strong economy and still-elevated inflation as a reason not to cut U.S. interest rates soon.

Jerome Powell on Inflation

Most recent data shows a lack of progress this year on reaching the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal, indicating that more time is needed before it can lower interest rates, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.23% with the current rate at 6.39%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.22% with the current rate at 7.1%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.92%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.94%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 212,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

Three reports are set to take center stage. Another strong inflation indicator in the PCE Index & Prices, Consumer Sentiment from Univ. of Michigan, and Manufacturing PMI data. All which should give the final decision on whether the next Federal Reserve Rate Decision meeting will include a rate cut. There is very little expectation there will be a rate cut at this juncture.