The CPI and PPI have yet to reveal the impacts of the tariff policies that were placed temporarily, which gives some potential insight that there might be a path forward for the Federal Reserve to look at potential rate cuts. However, economists across many industries are expecting inflation to increase temporarily as an impact for the policies that were put in place.

Significant uncertainty remains across many import and export markets, with major players opting to err on the side of caution while awaiting a final decision from the administration regarding its policies. Consumer sentiment has shown a slight improvement for the first time in six months, offsetting the largely negative outlook that has dominated the market since the onset of the trade wars.

Consumer Price Index
Top Federal Reserve officials and Wall Street economists still think higher U.S. tariffs will cause prices to increase over the summer, however. The evidence was thin in May. The consumer-price index rose a mere 0.1% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. That was a tick below Wall Street’s forecast. The 12-month increase in consumer prices edged up to 2.4% from a four-year low of 2.3%.

Producer Price Index
Americans have yet to feel any sting of inflation from the Trump tariffs when they go shopping. Now, a new look at wholesale prices suggests the coast might be clear for at least a little while longer. The producer-price index rose a scant 0.1% in May, the government said Thursday, coming in below the Wall Street forecast.

Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s closely watched gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 60.5 in a preliminary June reading from 52.2 in the prior month. This was the first improvement in six months. The gain was larger than forecast. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment to rise to 54 from the month-earlier reading of 52.2.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
o 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 5.97%
o 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 6.84%

MND Rate Index
o 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%
o 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 248,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 248,000.

What’s Ahead
The next FOMC Rate Decision is up ahead next week. Nothing is expected from this rate decision, as the Federal Reserve has stated repeatedly they have no plans to change things until policies are settled. Leading indicators have also been a significant player in the latest releases with many things being very uncertain.

With next week bringing the latest wave of inflation data reports—namely the CPI and PPI—this week featured a slew of releases with minimal impact. The Trade Deficit and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book stood out as the main indicators reflecting the current state of the economy. Although tariffs have largely been put on pause, their effects continue to reverberate across numerous industries.

Significant concern remains due to the instability in decision-making from the current administration. The Trade Deficit came in as expected, with the deficit cut in half following the announcement of tariffs, which caused imports to plunge. Meanwhile, the Beige Book indicated a significant slowing of the economy.

Federal Reserve Beige Book
The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in May, with consumers pulling back on spending and businesses delaying hiring, according to the Federal Reserve‘s Beige Book survey released Wednesday. According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth.

Trade Deficit
The numbers: The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed 55.5% in April to $61.6 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had predicted the deficit would narrow to a seasonally adjusted $63.3 billion from a record $140.9 billion in March.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 5.99%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.85%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 247,000 compared to the expected claims of 236,000. The prior week landed at 239,000.

What’s Ahead
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports are the major releases scheduled for next week, with most expectations pointing toward a rise in inflation in the near future. These will be followed by the Consumer Sentiment report.

The PCE Index release—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—has shown favorable results. However, the overwhelming sentiment remains one of uncertainty due to the ongoing trade wars. With these conflicts still in full swing, inflation is expected to rise in the near future at a faster-than-anticipated pace. Following the recent trade truce with China, consumer sentiment has improved, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. As expected, consumer spending has declined noticeably, as the tariffs have led to short-term price increases.

PCE Index
The cost of living barely rose in April — and the rate of inflation slowed even closer to prepandemic levels — but it’s unclear whether the recent progress can be sustained as the trade wars drag on. The back-to-back monthly inflation readings were the softest since the pandemic in 2020. The 12-month rate of inflation, meanwhile, slowed to 2.1% from 2.3% and also matched the lowest level since the pandemic.

Consumer Sentiment
A survey of consumer sentiment improved in late May on some signs that the tariff war with China might not be as damaging for the economy as feared. The second of two readings of the consumer sentiment survey rose to 52.2 from 50.8 in early May, the University of Michigan said Friday. That matches the sentiment level in April.

Consumer Spending
Americans became more cautious spenders in April after the Trump administration jacked up U.S. tariffs and the stock market plunged. Now the big question is what they will do next as the trade wars die down. Personal spending rose a modest 0.2% last month, the government said Friday, matching the forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.03%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 6.89%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 240,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 223,000.

What’s Ahead

A strong release week is upcoming with expected manufacturing reports from ISM, S&P Global Manufacturing to denote where producers stand. Following that is the Beige Book and Non-farm Payrolls. This will help indicate the direction of inflation and response to the tariff policies.

Despite the recent pause on tariffs for Europe and progressing talks with China, the economic outlook remains largely negative across all sectors and markets. Although this week was relatively light on economic reports, the most notable was the Leading Economic Indicators, which showed a significant decline in every measurable category for April. This decline is largely attributed to the tariff policies implemented recently. Overall, the outlook remains pessimistic, despite other markets showing a more favorable reaction to the recent pauses on tariffs.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100), after declining by 0.8% in March (revised downward from the -0.7% originally reported). The LEI declined by 2.0% in the six-month period ending April 2025, the same rate of decline as over the previous six months (April–October 2024).

“The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 6.01%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rate at 6.86%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.18% for this week. Current rates at 6.53%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.17% for this week. Current rates at 6.54%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 227,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead

PCE Index data release, the Federal Reserve’s inflation indicator, the FOMC minutes giving us forward guidance for the Federal Reserve’s policy, and Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be the most impactful releases of next week.

The latest inflation data has been released, offering insight into the near-term impact of the recent tariff measures. The results indicate that despite deflationary pressure on the economy, inflation continues to trend upward with the recent, ongoing tariff wars.

While the tariffs have been temporarily suspended, their effects are already being felt—consumers are experiencing price increases, and retailers have already been positioning themselves to increase prices due to the impacts of the tariff policies. While wholesale and producer inflation has seen a modest decline, this was expected as the market adjusts to the shifting economic landscape. Economists broadly predict that consumer prices will rise in the near term.

These findings reinforce what consumers have already been experiencing: sentiment has declined for the fifth consecutive month. Consumers are among the first to feel the direct effects of policy shifts.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices showed only a mild increase in April, but inflation probably won’t slow much further this year as the effects of the Trump trade wars ripple through the economy. The consumer-price index increased 0.2% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, matching Wall Street expectations. Prices had posted a rare decline in March.

Price Producer Index

Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April, a -0.5% decline, since the pandemic in 2020, but economists say the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off that might not be sustained if tariffs persist at current levels.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s popular gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment edged down to 50.8 in a preliminary May reading from 52.2 in the prior month. This is the index’s fifth straight monthly drop. Expectations for inflation spiked. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment would rise to 53.5.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 5.92%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rate at 6.81%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.35%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.12% for this week. Current rates at 6.37%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 226,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead

A very light week with the Economic Leading Indicators, Job Data, and Manufacturing PMI dotting the landscape. The leading indicators are expecting a deflationary impact.

Over the weekend, the recent talks with China and the U.S. about the recent tariffs have been said to be making progress recently in Geneva, leading to restoring some stability across all sectors and markets. The prior week, the FOMC decided not to change the rates and that will likely be the case in the foreseeable future. While having less presence due to the current economic climate, this week’s CPI and PPI inflation data releases remain as important as ever. These reports will offer insight into the recent impact of the trade war and help inform expectations for the near-term economic outlook.

Trade Deficit

The U.S. international trade deficit, including goods and services, widened 14% in March to a record seasonally adjusted $140.5 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, as companies rushed to import foreign products while they were slightly cheaper than they would be with White House tariffs added to the cost. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted the deficit would widen to $136 billion from $122.7 billion in February.

FOMC Rate Decision

At its May 7, 2025, meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, maintaining the rate at this level since December 2024. The Fed attributed this decision to increasing concerns about rising unemployment and inflation risks.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw no change for this week, with the current rate at 6.76%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.25%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.25%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 228,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 241,000.

What’s Ahead

Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index are set to release next week, highlighting the biggest indicators of the impact of the recent tradewar on the average consumer.

Last week featured a slew of releases, but the most important one as of this writing is the GDP estimates. Both the GDP and GDP deflator data have started to reverse their previous trends, raising serious concerns that the economy may be experiencing deflationary effects.

This is somewhat offset by the Personal Income and Spending reports, which showed favorable numbers, as well as the Non-farm Payroll figures, which have also increased during this period.

The impact of the latest tariffs and trade wars has already appeared in estimates and data releases across numerous markets. There is strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will need to respond with support to ensure market stability, chiefly by reducing interest rates. Additionally, Consumer Confidence reports have shown a consistent downward trend for the fifth month in a row.

Consumer Sentiment

The consumer-confidence index sank in April to the lowest level since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Confidence fell 7.9 points to 86.0 in April, the fifth straight monthly decline.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending rose briskly in March, but not because Americans are gung-ho on the economy. Many bought new cars or other items to avoid potential price increases tied to U.S. trade wars. Personal spending rose 0.7% last month, the government said Wednesday, a few ticks above the forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Gross Domestic Product

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025 for the first time in three years, reflecting a surge in imports ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and a slowdown in consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the official report card on the economy, shrank at a 0.3% annual rate from January to March, the government said Wednesday. It’s the first contraction in GDP since early 2022.

Non-Farm Payrolls 

The U.S. added a stronger-than-expected 177,000 new jobs in April, suggesting the labor market was largely unscathed last month by the Trump trade wars, for the time being. The increase in jobs exceeded the 133,000 forecast of economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. Many economists had expected to see signs of damage from the trade wars in the report.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 5.92%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week, with the current rate at 6.76%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.28%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.30%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 241,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 223,000.

What’s Ahead

Historically, it has been less relevant, but the Trade Balance reports will help shed light on some previously unknown data. Next week will also be lighter due to the upcoming FOMC rate decision, although a rate change is not expected.

While many useful indicators are set to be released this week, the previous week left us only with the Leading Economic Indicators, which showed signs of the economy slowing down in the future. Consumer Sentiment reports also indicated widespread dissatisfaction across all levels of income and education, largely due to the impacts of recent tariff decisions, which have been on hold.

We should expect next week to provide a clearer picture as decisions are made in the trade war between China and the United States. The PCE Prices, Non-farm Payrolls, Chicago Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income, and GDP estimates will offer more insight into the impact of the tariffs.

Concerns about inflation remain, but given the current stance on monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is much more likely not to react to inflation immediately, keeping its focus largely on the policies being set by the current administration.

Leading Economic Indicators

Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5, after a decline of 0.2% (revised up from -0.3%) in February. The LEI also fell by 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March 2025, smaller rate of decline than its -2.3% contraction over the previous six months.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment plunged 8% in April from the prior month, to a final reading of 52.2, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday. That was a slightly smaller decline than a preliminary reading from earlier this month, which didn’t capture people’s reaction to Trump’s 90-day tariff delay announced on April 9.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.94%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.81%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.25%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.27%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 216,000.

What’s Ahead

PCE Prices, Non-farm Payrolls, Chicago Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income, and GDP estimates are set to release next week. With other releases in the Global US Manufacturing PMI which historically isn’t a significant indicator but with a major shift in the dynamics of world trade, we can see major changes in those data release.

While the week had a significant absence of impactful data releases, there are still the notable U.S. retail figures numbers, as the turbulent tariff policies that have been announced have sent shockwaves across many industries. This time the U.S. retail sales have seen a significant jump as consumers try to get ahead of the tariff policies, although it is suspected that the subsequent data will show a significant curtailing of purchasing power by consumers. This restraint in the future is what has most analysts concerned about the future in addition to inflation rising as a result of the tariff policies.

U.S. Retail Sales

The numbers: Retail sales in the U.S. surged 1.4% in March—the biggest increase in more than two years—as shoppers sought to buy big-ticket items such as cars before Trump administration tariffs could raise prices.

The rise in sales surpassed Wall Street expectations, but it doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is trouble-free. The trade wars threaten to boost prices, fuel inflation and slow the economy in the months ahead if they persist.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.21% for this week, with the current rate at 6.03%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.21% for this week, with the current rate at 6.83%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.36%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.38%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.

What’s Ahead

Watching where crude oil is headed in the coming weeks will also be important to see how international trade is handling the recent tariff policies. In addition, the Consumer Sentiment report will give a better indication of how safe consumers feel in the current climate, along with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.