The major report to look out for was the Trade Balance, which has decreased more than expected, suggesting that the current administration’s policies are having an impact. However, the long-term impact on the economy as a whole remain to be seen. This was followed closely by consumer credit, which came in far lower than expected, though many are predicting that consumer credit usage will grow over time. While the labor market remains constrained, the consumer market has remained stable in spite of the uncertainty brought on by the tariff policies.

Trade Balance
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $60.2 billion in June, down $11.5 billion from $71.7 billion in May, revised.

Consumer Credit
Revolving credit, mainly credit cards, declined for the second straight month in June, the Federal Reserve said. Revolving credit fell at a 1% rate in June after a 3.5% drop in the prior month. Declines in credit-card borrowing are rare: The last time revolving credit fell for two straight months was during the COVID pandemic in 2020.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10% with the current rate at 5.75%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% with the current rate at 6.63%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% this week. Current rates at 6.15%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% this week. Current rates at 6.16%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 226,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 219,000.

What’s Ahead
A heavy week with the next round of inflation data being released with both the CPI and PPI reports. It should be noted that this CPI will feature less recorded data, relying more on estimations. In addition, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Treasury Budget should prove to be impactful data releases.

There were several notable releases this last week, with the largest being the PCE Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The PCE Index may be the more accurate indicator going forward, as data collection for the Consumer Price Index has been recently cut, thereby reducing its reliability. As expected, the inflation numbers have been steadily rising with the PCE Index, indicating that impacts from the tariffs are now filtering into prices for both producers and consumers.

As a follow up, Personal Income & Spending has had a light upturn after the initial panic with the tariffs. Lastly, the job numbers from last week have been unexpectedly weak, showing a slow down of the economy overall due to many factors.

PCE Index
A key measure of inflation posted the biggest increase in four months in June as the delayed effects of higher U.S. tariffs began to filter through the economy, raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. It was the biggest increase since February.

Personal Spending & Income
Americans spent more money in June after U.S. trade wars began to simmer down, but they were cautious spenders amid all the turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s tariffs. Personal spending increased 0.3% last month, the government said Thursday, and partly recovered from a soft patch in May and April.

Employment Reports
The U.S. only added 19,000 jobs in May compared to an initial report of 144,000, and only 14,000 in June after an initial report of 147,000, according to the BLS. Those two paltry totals, plus a July jobs gain of 73,000, means the U.S. added just 106,000 jobs over the past three months.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 5.85%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.72%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.17% this week. Current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.16% this week. Current rates at 6.24%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 222,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week will be a fairly light week, with the most significant releases being the Trade Balance as well as the Services PMI reports.

Very little was released this week due to the major inflation data releases from the previous week. The Leading Economic Index was the most significant—and only—impactful release this week, showing a further decline in overall sentiment about the current economic situation. The majority of the decline was largely driven by expectations for business conditions. The decline was faster than expected, enough to warrant continued monitoring of the Leading Economic Index going forward.

Leading Economic Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8, after no change in May (revised upward from -0.1% originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the -1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% with the current rate at 5.87%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 6.74%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 227,000. The prior week was 221,000.

What’s Ahead
Personal Income & Spending and PCE Prices will lead the way for data releases next week. Followed up by the Nonfarm Payrolls giving a strong indicator of where the economy is headed for the average consumer.

While inflation has slowed down since the pandemic, it is showing a faster-than-expected rise for consumers, as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has reported a higher than expected 0.3% increase, contrasted to the 0.2% expected increase.

Meanwhile, the PPI (Producer Price Index) has proven to be entirely flat, with the largest takeaway being that signs of tariff-related inflation are — at best — scattered among data reports, leading to many speculating that the impacts have been overestimated.

Given continued inflation for consumers, it is very unlikely the Federal Reserve will make any adjustments to the rate as it adopts a “wait-and-see” approach to the administration’s policies. Another noteworthy data release is retail sales, which has shown to snap back after the concerns about tariffs and widespread price increases have eased.

Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices in June posted the biggest increase since the beginning of the year and are likely to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates later this month, but there were only scattered signs of tariff-related inflation. The consumer-price index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Tuesday, and matched Wall Street’s forecast. It was the biggest rise since January.

Producer Price Index
Wholesale prices were unchanged in June and showed only a mild effect from U.S. tariffs, adding to the growing view that trade wars won’t lead to a big surge in inflation. The flat reading in the producer-price index came in below the Wall Street forecast of a 0.2% increase.

Retail Sales
Receipts at retail cash registers rose 0.6% last month, the government said Thursday, based on seasonally adjusted numbers. That was three times the Wall Street estimate.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rates at 5.92%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.75%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 221,000 compared to the expected claims of 234,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.

What’s Ahead
After inflation reports, there will only be the Leading Indicators report in the schedule for next week.

This was an extremely light release week with only the Consumer Credit Report. The amount of expected credit was expected to rise but only showed half the growth — a sign that things are still in stable condition. The most important reports will be featured with next week’s releases of inflation data in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige book. The Trump Administration has also further extended the pauses on the tariffs which has been a welcome relief.

Consumer Credit
Total U.S. consumer credit growth slowed to a $5.1 billion gain in May, down from a $16.9 billion rise in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. That translates to a 1.2% annual rate in May, down from a 4% rise in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rates at 5.86%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rates at 6.72%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.08% for this week, with the current rates at 6.35%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.08% for this week, with the current rates at 6.37%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 227,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and the Beige Book will be huge determining factors on the direction of decisions for the Federal Reserve.

With next week featuring both the CPI and PPI reports, the release schedule for this upcoming week will be extremely light. This previous week featured a small number of notable data releases. First being the trade deficit which has shown a sharp decline due to the tariff policies, but has increased again with the pause on tariffs. The manufacturing sector has seen growth as well with the PMI Manufacturing data, but inflation also proves to have grown just as much. Lastly, employment numbers have shown a stronger than expected labor market, but there are still expectations that things will cool further.

Manufacturing PMI
The headline index from the report, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, improved to 52.9 in June, from 52.0 in May. The latest reading was the highest since May 2022, and indicative of a solid rate of expansion. It was also the sixth successive month in which the PMI has posted above the critical 50.0 no-change mark.

Manufacturers recorded a first rise in production for four months. Growth was the second-steepest since March 2024, surpassed only by February’s near three-year record.

Employment Data
The U.S. added a decent 147,000 jobs in June, pointing to resilience in the labor market. But the pace of hiring has slowed since last year as businesses grapple with trade wars and the crackdown on immigration. About half of the new jobs were created by state and local governments, taking some shine off a seemingly solid report. The private sector only added 74,000 jobs, marking the smallest increase in eight months.

Trade Deficit
The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rates at 5.80%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.10% for this week, with the current rates at 6.67%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rates at 6.27%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week, with the current rates at 6.29%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 233,000 compared to the expected claims of 240,000. The prior week landed at 237,000.

What’s Ahead
An extremely light release week with nothing of note. The following week will feature inflation data with the CPI and PPI reports.

With the passing of the previous busy weeks of rate decisions, this week features the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report in the PCE Index, which has shown that inflation has come in hotter than expected for the month of May. This likely cements the Federal Reserve’s decision to take no action until later and further confirming most economists’ predictions. The consumer confidence has also taken a hit as it has further declined again for the month of May, indicating there is still significant apprehension within the markets and consumers alike. This is accompanied by Consumer Spending data, which met expectations, as many consumers had already begun pulling back on spending in response to tariff policies before many of those measures were paused.

PCE Index
In an updated forecast, Federal Reserve officials now expect inflation, as measured by the core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, to jump to 3.1% by the end of the year, up from a rate of 2.5% in April.

Consumer Spending
Americans cut spending in May after buying lots of new cars and other goods earlier in the year to beat U.S. tariffs, underscoring how ongoing trade wars are disrupting the economy. Personal spending fell 0.1% last month, the government said Friday. It was the first decline since January.

Consumer Sentiment
The ongoing trade wars haven’t faded from public view. Consumer confidence fell in June, as Americans grew more pessimistic about the future of the economy and their ability to find a job. The index of consumer confidence declined to 93 last month from 98.4 in May, when the Trump administration dialed back the highest U.S. tariffs.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week, with the current rates at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.77%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.19% for this week, with the current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.19% for this week, with the current rates at 6.23%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 236,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 246,000.

What’s Ahead
Non-farm Payrolls, Job Data, Manufacturing PMI Data will be the largest reports out for next week. The most important data reflecting the impact of tariffs has already been released.

With the passing of the FOMC rate decision, it has become clear that the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach to the current situation regarding tariff policies. Although the vast majority of economists around the world have made predictions about what lies ahead, the effects have not yet been pronounced. Many of the recent tariff changes have also been revoked or put on pause for the largest industries, leaving many markets uncertain about the future. The key takeaway is that conditions will likely remain steady for now. The only other data release offering insight into what’s to come is the notable decline in U.S. retail sales, reflecting a reduction in consumer activity.

U.S. Retail Sales
Simmering trade wars have created a sort of start-and-stop economy, and the latest snapshot of retail sales in May underscores the threat to U.S. growth. Sales at retailers nationwide fell for the second month in a row, the government reported Tuesday. Receipts tumbled 0.9% in May after a small decline in April, based on seasonally adjusted numbers.

FOMC Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday stuck to its forecast of two interest-rate cuts in 2025 despite seeing a burst of inflation coming in the next few months as a result of higher tariffs. In an updated forecast, Fed officials now expect inflation, as measured by the core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, to jump to 3.1% by the end of the year, up from a rate of 2.5% in April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rates at 5.96%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.81%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.41%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week, with the current rates at 6.42%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 245,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 250,000.

What’s Ahead
Job data is due ahead next week as well as the more recent data from the U.S. trade deficits, which many have had their eyes on.

The CPI and PPI have yet to reveal the impacts of the tariff policies that were placed temporarily, which gives some potential insight that there might be a path forward for the Federal Reserve to look at potential rate cuts. However, economists across many industries are expecting inflation to increase temporarily as an impact for the policies that were put in place.

Significant uncertainty remains across many import and export markets, with major players opting to err on the side of caution while awaiting a final decision from the administration regarding its policies. Consumer sentiment has shown a slight improvement for the first time in six months, offsetting the largely negative outlook that has dominated the market since the onset of the trade wars.

Consumer Price Index
Top Federal Reserve officials and Wall Street economists still think higher U.S. tariffs will cause prices to increase over the summer, however. The evidence was thin in May. The consumer-price index rose a mere 0.1% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. That was a tick below Wall Street’s forecast. The 12-month increase in consumer prices edged up to 2.4% from a four-year low of 2.3%.

Producer Price Index
Americans have yet to feel any sting of inflation from the Trump tariffs when they go shopping. Now, a new look at wholesale prices suggests the coast might be clear for at least a little while longer. The producer-price index rose a scant 0.1% in May, the government said Thursday, coming in below the Wall Street forecast.

Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s closely watched gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 60.5 in a preliminary June reading from 52.2 in the prior month. This was the first improvement in six months. The gain was larger than forecast. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment to rise to 54 from the month-earlier reading of 52.2.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
o 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 5.97%
o 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 6.84%

MND Rate Index
o 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%
o 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 248,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 248,000.

What’s Ahead
The next FOMC Rate Decision is up ahead next week. Nothing is expected from this rate decision, as the Federal Reserve has stated repeatedly they have no plans to change things until policies are settled. Leading indicators have also been a significant player in the latest releases with many things being very uncertain.

With next week bringing the latest wave of inflation data reports—namely the CPI and PPI—this week featured a slew of releases with minimal impact. The Trade Deficit and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book stood out as the main indicators reflecting the current state of the economy. Although tariffs have largely been put on pause, their effects continue to reverberate across numerous industries.

Significant concern remains due to the instability in decision-making from the current administration. The Trade Deficit came in as expected, with the deficit cut in half following the announcement of tariffs, which caused imports to plunge. Meanwhile, the Beige Book indicated a significant slowing of the economy.

Federal Reserve Beige Book
The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in May, with consumers pulling back on spending and businesses delaying hiring, according to the Federal Reserve‘s Beige Book survey released Wednesday. According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth.

Trade Deficit
The numbers: The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed 55.5% in April to $61.6 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had predicted the deficit would narrow to a seasonally adjusted $63.3 billion from a record $140.9 billion in March.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 5.99%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.85%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 247,000 compared to the expected claims of 236,000. The prior week landed at 239,000.

What’s Ahead
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports are the major releases scheduled for next week, with most expectations pointing toward a rise in inflation in the near future. These will be followed by the Consumer Sentiment report.