The trade deficit dropped significantly this month, resulting in the smallest gap in the last 16 years. This has been entirely driven by the ongoing gold rush and, to a much less impactful degree, businesses working their way around high tariffs. The unemployment reports, however, have shed another light, showing a steady trend of unemployment rising and reaching a four-year high as of last week.

This is somewhat offset by consumer sentiment, which showed a slightly positive increase alongside relative improvements in the economy. All in all, the data points to mixed results for the broader market. The upcoming week will be a much greater indicator, with all major inflation reports in the PPI and CPI scheduled for release.

Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit plummeted 39% in October to reach the lowest level in 16 years, but the steep drop stemmed from an ongoing gold rush of sorts as well as efforts by businesses to work around high tariffs. The trade gap shrank to $29.4 billion in October from $48.1 billion in September, the government said Thursday. The October report was delayed by the federal shutdown.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose to 54 in a preliminary January reading from 52.9 in the prior month. This marked the second straight gain and the highest level of sentiment since September. “Consumers perceived some modest improvement in the economy,” the survey found, although sentiment remains nearly 25% below last January’s reading.

Jobs Report

The unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 4.6%, according to a mostly tepid November jobs report. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 new jobs in November, the government said, with the report skewed by deferred resignations of federal workers.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with the current rate at 5.46%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.16%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.16%, with current rates at 5.69%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.17%, with current rates at 5.70%

Jobless Claims

Initial claims were reported at 208,000 compared to expected claims of 210,000. The prior week’s total was 200,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI inflation reports are the major releases for next week, along with the usual employment data.

With the only notable item on the schedule being the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, which reflect the current stance of the Fed, virtually nothing has changed since the last rate cut. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its wait-and-see approach.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06% with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% with the current rate at 6.15%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.85%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.87%

Jobless Claims

No release of data due to the holidays.

What’s Ahead

The upcoming week will feature the usual data releases, with the major ones being the Trade Deficit, Consumer Credit, and Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.

The Consumer Price Index was scheduled to be released this week but has once again been delayed, with no explanation provided. This left the unemployment data as the only notable economic release from last week. The data showed that unemployment numbers came in higher than expected; however, this result is somewhat tempered by the fact that the figures are supported by a more limited data set.

Even so, it is not a positive sign that unemployment numbers are exceeding expectations under these circumstances. At this time, there is still no word on when the Consumer Price Index will be released, with the Christmas holiday fast approaching.

Unemployment Report
Unemployment rate climbs to 4-year high of 4.6%, November jobs report shows. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 new jobs in November, the government said, in an otherwise lackluster employment report that was skewed by the deferred resignations of federal workers.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week, with the current rate at 5.47%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 6.21%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week. Current rates at 5.88%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 5.89%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 237,000.

What’s Ahead
With Christmas Holiday on the horizon, there will be very little in the way of reports released.

The Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision occurred the prior week, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates another quarter as expected by many industry analysts. This has given the market a lot of optimism that the trend will still continue and the Chairman Jerome Powell has stated it’s a good time to wait and see where the economy is headed before cutting rates further, giving further confidence more will be coming next year.

There was also the U.S. Trade Deficit to gauge where the current trade policies have positioned the U.S. and it has been reported that the expectations for the trade deficit have been beat this time by a significant amount. With the economy still in an overall strong position, there is some optimism that the tariff policies have not had as negative an impact as initially presumed. 

Federal Reserve Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered interest rates again in a continued effort to keep the labor market intact, despite objections from several key Fed officials who believe the central bank should be prioritizing the higher cost of living instead. A majority of policymakers voted to lower the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point for the third consecutive time, to a range of between 3.5% to 3.75%, the lowest in more than three years. 

U.S. Trade Deficit
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $52.8 billion in September, down $6.4 billion from $59.3 billion in August, revised.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week, with the current rate at 5.54%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 6.22%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.01% for this week. Current rates at 5.90%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 5.92%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 236,000 compared to the expected claims of 223,000. The prior week landed at 192,000.

What’s Ahead
GDP data are expected to release this month but there may be delays. The Consumer Confidence report will also give better insight to the state of the economy from the consumer perspective.

The PCE Index reports have come in—albeit delayed—and show inflation numbers that fell within expectations. The data also indicates that inflation has not worsened since before the government shutdown. It is widely believed that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates once more.

This is followed by another Consumer Spending report showing that spending rose in September and October, though the momentum appears to be slowing. Much of the optimism in the broader markets going forward hinges on the potential for further interest rate cuts.

Consumer Spending
Personal spending rose 0.3% in September, the government said Friday. That was a touch slower than in the prior two months, but it capped off a strong third quarter. Wall Street economists predict GDP could show 3% annual growth or more. Rising incomes and household wealth, especially among upper-income families, are helping to fan the fire. Worker pay is increasing faster than inflation.

PCE Index
The rate of U.S. inflation stayed stuck close to 3% before the government shutdown, a long-delayed report showed, providing a final piece of the puzzle before the Federal Reserve votes on whether to cut interest rates again.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.19%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 5.89%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 5.90%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 191,000 compared to the expected claims of 218,000. The prior week landed at 216,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week, the Consumer Price Index is scheduled to be released.

Many of the reports scheduled for release last week were delayed yet again, including the anticipated unemployment data. There is an expectation that they will be released next week. The only on-time release was the third-party Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan, which aligned with expectations and generally indicated that consumers remain dissatisfied with the current state of things, citing high prices and consistently weakening incomes.

Univ. of Michigan Consumer Report
Consumer sentiment was little changed this month with a 2.6 index point decrease from October that is within the margin of error. After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading. However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. This month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 5.51%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 6.23%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 5.86%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week.Current rates at 5.88%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were delayed until the following week.

What’s Ahead
PPI and PCE Index inflation reports are the biggest data releases next week, along with the delayed unemployment data.

This week finally got a strong release of regularly scheduled data, with unemployment figures coming out first, along with employment-rate data.

The prior week included the Consumer Price Index, which came in favorable. Some of the unemployment-related numbers, however, weren’t as telling as they could be: the forecast was roughly 50,000, but the actual figure landed closer to 110,000. That’s an order-of-magnitude miss, suggesting we may need to allow some time for the data to self-correct.

The coming week is slated to include both the PPI—which has drifted out of sync with the CPI—and the PCE Index. These are the two major releases to watch. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly mentioned that the PCE Index is their preferred inflation indicator, and that is likely to remain the case going forward.

Unemployment Report
The long-delayed September employment report showed the U.S. created 119,000 new jobs, a surprisingly robust increase that could give the Federal Reserve more reason to shelve a third interest-rate cut in a row next month. The increase in new jobs was the largest since April, but hiring has slowed down sharply this year. Indeed, the economy lost jobs in June and August.

Jobless Reports
The first jobless-claims report since the government shutdown shows no spike in layoffs. Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 220,000 in the week ended Nov. 15, the Labor Department said Thursday. The last jobless-claims report prior to the shutdown showed claims at 219,000.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rate at 5.54%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.26%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 5.94%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week.Current rates at 5.95%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 227,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
PPI and PCE Index inflation reports are the biggest data releases next week. They should be very impactful.

In the aftermath of the recent government shutdown, the expected releases are still delayed. This round of releases is particularly impactful, involving key inflation reports from both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. While the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE Index—and also relies on its own methods for collecting inflation data—the delay is undoubtedly troubling for the broader market, as the shutdown disrupted a wide range of services across the nation. The data is now expected to be released next week.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 5.49%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.24%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.02%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
Inflation reports are slated to be released next week, but there is potential that they could be delayed further.

With the government shutdown heading into a possible resolution, there were still delays on important data such as employment report releases. This has been somewhat relieved with the release of other reports that have been delayed in the past within the current government shutdown.

This time we are looking at Consumer Sentiment reports by Univ. of Michigan, which has reported a record low in sentiment in the last 6 months amidst the government shutdown. This signifies growing consumer anxiety as inflation pressures grow and delays in programs like Food Benefits take effect. Next week, the CPI and PPI inflation reports are tentatively scheduled for release, and many are anticipating it to be within line. However it still remains to be seen if it will be released on time.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The mood among consumers darkened in November as the government shutdown dragged on, according to a new survey released Friday. The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index fell to 50.3 in a preliminary November reading, down from 53.6 in the prior month. That’s the lowest level since June 2022, which was the lowest level on record.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rate at 6.22%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
The CPI and PPI inflation reports are scheduled to be released next week. 

With the ongoing government shutdown, other major releases have hit a snag, as there is still very limited information for when the shutdown may end. The largest and most impactful releases continuing to move forward are those from third-party sources still publishing data — such as the Consumer Sentiment reports — which show that consumers remain concerned about inflation but have recently grown more optimistic about the labor market.

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates again by another 25 basis points. However, Chairman Jerome Powell remains skeptical that another rate cut will occur anytime soon.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumers were more optimistic about the labor market outlook in October, according to a new survey from the Conference Board released Tuesday. The survey’s so-called labor-market differential — which measures the gap between the percentage of consumers who say jobs are “plentiful” and those who say jobs are “hard to get” — rose to 9.4 in October from 8.7 in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.17%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
U.S. employment data, if released next week, are likely to be the most significant reports to watch.