Last week’s economic reporting included readings on the Fed’s interest rate decision, S&P Case-Shiller’s Home Price Indices, sales of new homes, and pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate range to 5.25 to 5.50 percent; this announcement signaled that rates for home loans and unsecured credit would also rise.

S&P Case-Shiller Reports Slower Home Price Growth  in May

Average  U.S. home prices fell in May according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices were -1.70 percent lower as compared to an expected dip of -1.90 percent and April’s reading of -1.70 percent. The top three cities reporting the highest pace of year-over-year home price growth were Chicago, Illinois with home price growth of 4.60 percent; Cleveland Ohio, where home prices grew by 3.90 percent, and New York City, where home prices rose by 3.50 percent.

Sales of previously owned homes fell due to high demand and slim supplies of homes for sale. Homeowners stayed on the sidelines while waiting for lower mortgage rates, but prospective buyers didn’t seem discouraged by rising rates, which recently approached 7 percent.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Case-Shiller Indices, said that the rally in U.S. home prices continued in May.

New home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 697,000 sales in June. Analysts estimated a pace of 725,000 sales and May’s reading showed a pace of 715,000 new home sales. Higher home prices in popular metro areas and rising mortgage rates created affordability challenges for first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

In related news, the FHFA Home Price Index reported that home price growth for homes owned and sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 0.70 percent in May and was unchanged from April’s pace of home price growth. The FHFA reported year-over-year home price growth of 2.80 percent.

Mortgage Rates Rise as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates for the fourth consecutive week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by three basis points to 6.81 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was five basis points higher at 6.11 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 221,000 claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 228,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending,  public and private-sector payrolls, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on construction spending, June’s FOMC meeting minutes, and reports on jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Increased in May

The Commerce Department reported spending for construction rose to 0.90 percent in May as compared to a month-to-month increase of 0.40 percent posted in April. The year-over-year reading showed $1.93 trillion in construction spending in May. April’s data was revised downward from the original reading of 1.20 percent growth to 0.40 percent growth in construction spending.

Readings for construction spending include all phases of government and private construction projects. When construction spending increases. It indicates overall growth in the economy. Year-over-year construction spending was 2.40 percent higher in May.

Private-Sector Job Growth Exceeds Expectations in June

The Commerce  Department reported the largest increase in private-sector job growth since July 2022. 497,000 jobs were added in June 2023, which surpassed analyst expectations of 220,000 jobs added. 267,000 jobs were reported in May’s reading. The increase in available jobs countered forecasts that the Federal Reserve’s recent series of interest rate hikes would slow inflation and dampen economic growth.

The national unemployment rate fell from 3.60 percent from 3.70 percent in May to 3.60 percent in June. In related news, weekly jobless claims rose to 248,000 claims from the previous week’s reading of 236,000 jobless claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 220,000 claims filed.

Minutes of Federal Reserve Meeting: Fed Holds Federal Rate Range Steady in June

Members of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the Fed’s interest rate range at 5.00 percent to 5.25 percent. Committee members cited the tight labor market and current economic conditions that exceeded expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would likely raise its rate range two more times during 2023. 

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week’s the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 10 basis points to 6.81 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.24 percent and 18 basis points higher.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include month-to-month and year-over-year readings on consumer inflation; the final monthly reading on consumer sentiment will be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

 

Last week’s scheduled economic reports included readings on housing starts, existing home sales, and Federal  Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

National Home Builders Association Releases June Housing Market Index

U.S.  home builder confidence rose by five points to an index reading of 55 in June according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. The June reading surpassed the expected reading of 51 and May’s housing market index reading of 50. Component readings for the Housing Market Index also rose as builder confidence in current market conditions rose five points and confidence in market conditions for the next six months rose six points.

NAHB said that a shortage of previously-owned homes for sale is driving sales of new homes and rising builder confidence. Many current homeowners refinanced to very low rates available during and immediately after the pandemic and are not inclined to refinance or buy new homes at current higher interest rates.

Mr. Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the NAHB, said: “A  bottom is forming for single-family home building as builder sentiment continues to gradually rise from the beginning of the year.” Mr. Dietz also noted that “with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its tightening cycle, it’s good news for future market conditions in terms of mortgage rates and the cost of builder and developer loans.”

June’s reading was the sixth consecutive month showing increasing home builder confidence and the 11^th month since builder sentiment moved into positive territory.

Mortgage Rates Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by two basis points to 6.67 percent and rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by seven basis points to an average rate of 6.03 percent.

Sales of previously-owned homes rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.30 million sales as compared to the expected reading of 4.25 million sales and April’s reading of April’  reading of 4.29 million sales.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Indices, new and pending home sales, and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings on new and pending home sales and inflation. The final monthly reading for May consumer sentiment was released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Shortage of previously-owned homes for sale directs buyers to new homes

Homeowners weren’t in a hurry to sell their homes due to the low mortgage rates they obtained during the pandemic. Current mortgage rates are higher than pandemic-era rates, which influenced homeowners to stay in their homes and keep their lower existing mortgage rates. Home buyers turned to new home developments as an alternative to shopping for a home within the slim supply of available previously-owned homes.

The number of pending home sales was unchanged from March as compared to the expected reading of an 0.80 percent increase in pending sales and the March reading of a -5.20 percent decrease in pending home sales. Rising mortgage rates and concerns over the economy sidelined some sellers and would-be home buyers. Rising inflation continued to impact consumers as prices for goods and services rose by 0.40 percent in April as compared to the March increase of 0.10 percent. Year-over-year inflation rose to 4.40 percent in April as compared to the March year-over-year inflation reading of 4.20 percent. 

Consumer concerns about inflation and recession were supported by the government-sponsored mortgage organization  Fannie Mae, which predicted a recession in the second half of 2023.

Fed forecasts a recession and raises key interest rate range

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that policymakers were divided on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision to raise its key interest-rate range to 5.00 percent and 5.25 percent. Some Fed members indicated that May’s interest rate hike may be the last for the near future as expectations of a recession rose. 

Mortgage rates and jobless claims rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 18 basis points to 6.57 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 22 basis points to 5.97 percent.

229,000 new jobless claims were filed last week; this reading fell short of the expected reading of 245,000 initial claims filed and exceeded the prior week’s reading of 225,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on public and private-sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released. 

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on U.S. housing markets, sales of previously-owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: U.S. Home Builder Confidence Rises in May

The National Association of Home Builders reported a five-point gain in home builder confidence in current housing market conditions in May. The index reading for May rose to 50 in May as compared to April’s reading of 45. Analysts expected a reading of 45 for May. Readings above 50 indicate a majority of home builders are positive about current housing market conditions. Component readings of the home builder index also rose as the gauge for current market conditions rose by five points to 50; the reading for market conditions over the next six months rose by seven points and the index reading for buyer traffic increased by two points.

Builders surveyed indicated that homeowners aren’t motivated to sell as many of them bought or refinanced their homes during the pandemic when mortgage rates were very low. Aspiring homeowners are turning to new homes for more options as demand for homes continues to outpace the number of previously-owned homes available.

 Higher demand for homes caused developers to reduce incentives to homebuyers. Homebuilders offering price reductions on new homes fell from 30 percent in April to 27 percent in May.  NAHB said home price reductions averaged six percent of original home prices.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.39 percent and were four basis points higher than for the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.75 percent, which was unchanged from the prior week.

242,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week as compared to 255,000 expected claims and 264,000 first-time jobless claims filed in the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new and pending home sales, minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the final consumer sentiment reading for May. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.