Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on inflation and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Inflationary Growth Exceeds Expectations, Creates Consumer Challenges

October’s inflation rate rose to its highest year-over-year pace in 31 years last week with a reading of 6.20 percent growth as compared to September’s year-over-year growth rate of 5.40 percent. Inflation rose by 0.90 percent month-to-month in October as compared to September’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Consumers paid more for essential goods including food, fuel, and transportation. October’s inflationary growth rate surpassed the Federal Reserve’s inflationary goal of 2.00 percent year-over-year.

Pandemic-related conditions continued to delay supply chains and further limited goods and services available to consumers. Auto prices were higher due to lower production and falling inventories. Slim supplies and high demand caused rising prices in many economic sectors. Rising prices currently outstrip income growth, which renders current inflationary conditions unsustainable for many consumers.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.60 percent in October and exceeded predictions of an 0.40 percent increase based on September’s reading of 0.20 percent month-to-month core inflation.

The Federal Reserve recently described ongoing high inflation as “transitory,” but it appears to be going nowhere anytime soon.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 11 basis points to 2.98 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.27 percent and were eight basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.53 percent and one basis point lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Last week’s new jobless claims fell to 267,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 271,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 2.16 million claims filed as compared to the reading of 2.10 million ongoing claims filed in the prior week.

The University of Michigan released its preliminary reading for November’s Consumer Sentiment Index and reported a November index reading of 66.8, which was lower than the expected reading of 72.0 and October’s index reading of 71.7. Consumer concerns over growing inflation and higher costs caused consumer sentiment about current economic conditions to dip.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index, along with readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reporting included the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index reports on building permits issued and housing starts, The National Association of Realtors® reported on sales of previously owned homes, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Improves in September

The National Association of Home Builders reported an index reading of 80 for its September Housing Market Index. Analysts expected September’s index reading to match August’s reading of 76. Builders continued to face supply chain challenges and labor shortages amid growing concerns over rising home prices and affordability for would-be home buyers.

Component readings for the Housing Market Index also showed rising builder confidence. The index for current housing market conditions rose five points to an index reading of 87; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months rose three points to 84. The gauge for buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments rose four points to an index reading of 65.

Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the NAHB, said “Policymakers must focus on fixing the broken supply chain. This will spur more construction and help ease upward pressure on home prices.”

Continuing supply chain problems caused some builders to limit building due to concerns over materials costs and availability. Shortages of small and medium homes would cause home prices to rise just as interest rates are expected to rise. These conditions add to concerns over affordability for first-time and modest-income home buyers.

NAHB HMI readings over 50 indicate that most builders surveyed have a positive outlook on housing market conditions.

September sales of previously-owned homes rose to 6.29 million homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to August’s reading of 5.88 million previously-owned homes sold and expectations of 6.10 million previously-owned homes sold. Increasing sales of pre-owned homes indicated that severe shortages of available homes during the pandemic were easing.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose four basis points to 3.09 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged three basis points higher at 2.33 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell one basis point to an average rate of 2.54 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 290,000 claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 296,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 300,000 first-time claims to be filed. Fewer continuing jobless claims were filed last week; 2.48 million ongoing jobless claims were filed as compared to 2.60 million ongoing jobless claims filed in the previous week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, reports on sales of new and previously-owned homes, and the University of  Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings on public and private-sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Non-Farm Payrolls: Jobs Growth Dips Sharply in September

U.S. jobs growth dipped sharply in September according to the federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. 194,000 public and private sector jobs were added and fell far short of the expected reading of 500,000 jobs added. 366,000 public and private sector jobs were added in August. Hiring lagged as continuing concerns over Covid kept workers at home. Less hiring at public schools reduced September’s jobs growth at a time when schools traditionally hire for the upcoming school year.

ADP reported 568,000 private-sector jobs added in September; analysts expected 425,0000 jobs added based on 340,000 private-sector jobs added in August. In related news, the national unemployment rate fell to 4.80 percent in September as compared to August’s jobless rate of 5.20 percent. Analysts expected the national unemployment rate to drop to 5.10 percent in September.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Fall

Fixed mortgage rates fell last week as the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell two basis points to 2.99 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by five basis points on average to 2.23 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by four basis points to 2.52 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages

New and continuing jobless claims fell last week as 326,000 initial jobless claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 364,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 345,000 initial jobless claim filings. 2.71 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 2.81 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

 

Last week’s economic news included reporting on housing markets, housing starts, and building permits issued. Data on new and existing home sales were published along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Ticks Up as Demand for Homes Holds Steady

The National Association of Home Builders reported a one-point gain in its Housing Market Index for September with an index reading of 76. Analysts expected no change based on August’s reading of 75. Component readings for the HMI were mixed; the index reading for builder confidence in current market conditions rose one point to 82. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months was unchanged at 81 and builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments rose two points to an index reading of 61.

Builders continue to face headwinds as materials costs and home prices continue to rise. Home prices present a challenge to would-be buyers who don’t want to pay inflated prices or cannot qualify for mortgages based on rapidly rising home prices. Persistent shortages of homes kept homebuilders busy, but shortages of building materials forced builders to pace construction according to materials availability.

Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.62 million starts in August; analysts expected a pace of 1.55 million starts, which was unchanged from July’s housing starts. Building permits were issued at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.73 million permits, which surpassed the expected reading of 1.62 million permits issued and July’s reading of 1.63 million permits issued.

Existing Home Sales Fall in August as New Home Sales Rise

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer sales of previously-owned homes in August. 5.88 million homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis as compared to July’s reading of 6.00 million pre-owned homes sold. Slim supplies of previously-owned homes for sale, rising home prices, and competition with cash buyers sidelined buyers who preferred to wait for less challenging housing market conditions.

Limited options in available pre-owned homes boosted new home sales in August. 740,000 new homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis as compared to the expected reading of 720,000 new homes sold and July’s reading of 729,000 new homes sold.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported mixed readings for mortgage rates last week as average rates for fixed-rate mortgages rose and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two points and averaged 2.88 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by three basis points to 2.15 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.43 percent. Discount points averaged  0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

New jobless claims rose to 351,000 initial claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 335,000 initial claims filed. 2.85 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.71 million continuing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P  Case-Shiller on home price growth, pending home sales, and construction spending. The University of Michigan will release its monthly Consumer Sentiment Index and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Last week’s economic reporting was limited due to the Labor Day holiday. Job openings were reported along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

July Job Openings Higher Than Expected

The Labor Department reported record job openings for the fifth consecutive month in July. Economists said that the data used in the report lagged by a month and the readings were not impacted by the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus.

Job openings fell in construction, trade, transportation, and utilities. There were less than 0.80 unemployed available for each job opening in July. Hiring fell by 160,000 hires to 6.70 million hires. Job separations, which included terminations and voluntary quits, rose by 174,000 to 5.80 million separations. Retirements and location transfers were not included in the job separation data. Private-sector quits rose from 3.00 percent to 3.10 percent, which indicated workers were confident they could find better jobs.

Economists don’t expect hot jobs markets to cool anytime soon. High demand for workers and rising wages indicated that less hiring is unlikely in the near term. 

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.88 percent. Rates for 15-year mortgages also rose by one basis point to an average rate of 2.19 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged one basis point lower at 2.42 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-yar fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent. 

Initial jobless claims fell to 310,000 new claims filed as compared to 340,000 first-time claims filed n the previous week. Analysts estimated 335,0000 initial claims would be filed last week. Continuing jobless claims were also lower with 2.78 million ongoing claims filed; 2.81 million continuing claims were filed in the previous week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation, retail sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released. 

Last week’s economic news included readings on home prices from Case-Shiller; readings on construction spending and pending home sales were also released. Weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller Posts New Record for Home Price Growth in June

U.S. home prices continued to gain at record levels in June according to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The National  Home Price Index rose from May’s seasonally adjusted annual reading of 16.80 percent growth to 18.60 percent year-over-year home price growth in June.

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported no change in the top three cities for home price growth in June. Phoenix, Arizona, San Diego, California, and Seattle, Washington retained the top three positions in the 20-City Home Price Index. Analysts said that the current pace of home price growth isn’t sustainable. Demand for homes slowed in June as affordability sidelined would-be buyers. Less demand for homes was expected to ease home price growth and provide an additional inventory of available homes.

Pending Home Sales Slow in July as Construction Spending Increases

The National Association of Realtors® reported that pending home sales slowed in July. Pending sales are sales for which purchase offers are received but are not yet closed. Pending sales of previously-owned homes fell by -1.80 percent in July;  analysts expected pending sales to rise by 0.50 percent from June’s reading of -1.90 percent. Pending home sales fell by 8.50 percent year-over-year in July. Pending home sales provide real estate pros a compass for estimating home sales completed in the future.

Homebuilders faced with an ongoing shortage of available homes for sale increased construction spending in July. Lumber and materials prices have stabilized from earlier in 2021 and should help builders complete more homes. Shortages of buildable land and skilled labor continued to impact optimum home-building conditions.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported no change in rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which averaged 2.87 percent; rates for 15-year fixed- rate mortgages averaged 2.18 percent and one basis point higher than in the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged one basis point higher at 2.43 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Jobless claims fell last week as 340,000 first-time claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 354,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were also lower with 2.75 million continuing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 2.91 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports will be limited due to the Labor Day holiday. Readings on job openings and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report will be released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

 

Last week’s economic reports included readings on new and existing home sales; the University of Michigan released its monthly Consumer Sentiment Index, and weekly updates on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

New Home Sales and Median Home Price Rose in July

The Census Bureau reported that new homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 353,000 sales in July; analysts expected a pace of 350,000 new homes sold based on June’s reading of 349,000 sales of new homes. Homebuyers are buying new and existing homes at a faster pace as more homes and wider choices become available to would-be buyers. The number of new homes for sale rose 5.50 percent month-to-month and was 26 percent higher year-over-year. The median price for a new home rose to a new high of $390,500 in July.

The National Association of Realtors®  reported that July sales of previously-owned homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 5.99 million sales; analysts expected 5.87 million sales based on June’s sales pace of 5.83 million sales of previously-owned homes. Real estate pros were pleased with July’s increased sales pace and expected the trend to continue.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged one basis point higher at 2.87 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also rose by one basis point to 2.17 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.42 percent and were one basis point lower. Discount points were lower across the board and averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims rose to 353,000 claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 349,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 350,000 new jobless claims to be filed last week. Continuing jobless claims dipped to 2.86 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 2.87 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August ticked up to an index reading of 70.3 from July’s reading of 70.2; analysts expected an August reading of  71.0.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic reporting included readings on Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, construction spending, and Government readings on public and private-sector jobs growth and the national unemployment rate.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending, consumer sentiment, labor sector reports on public and private sector jobs, and national unemployment. Weekly readings for mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Residential Sector Drove June Construction Spending

Construction spending rose by 0.10 percent in June according to the Commerce Department. Analysts expected spending to increase by 0.50 percent, but builders spent less on public sector and non-residential projects. Spending for all construction spending rose at a year-over-year pace of $1.55 trillion. Residential construction rose by 1.10 percent in June, but public-sector spending fell by -1.20 percent and nonresidential construction spending fell by 0.70 percent. Year-over-year residential construction spending rose by 28.80 percent in June; nonresidential construction spending was 6.60 percent lower year-over-year.

Demand for homes continued to exceed the supply of available homes. Builders took advantage of lower lumber prices to ramp up construction, but shortages of affordable entry-level homes continued to challenge first-time and moderate-income home buyers. Although the covid pandemic continued to increase demand for homes, some buyers left the market due to high home prices and few options for available homes. Cash buyers and bidding wars in popular metro areas continued to drive up home prices.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points to 2.77 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.10 percent; Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.40 percent and were five basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell to 385,000 initial claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 399,000 new claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims were also lower with 2.93 million continuing claims filed as compared to 3.30 million ongoing claims filed in the previous week.

Low Unemployment Rate Suggests Continued Economic Recovery

Public and private sector jobs showed mixed results in July. ADP reported 330,000 private-sector jobs added in July as compared to 680,000 private-sector jobs added in June. The Labor Department reported 943,000 public and private-sector jobs added in July as compared to its June reading of 938,000 jobs added. The national unemployment rate fell to 5.40 percent in July as compared to June’s reading of 5.90 percent. Analysts expected an unemployment rate of 5.70 percent in July. 

What’s  Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic readings include reporting on job openings, inflation, and the University of Michigan’s initial consumer sentiment index for August. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets and  Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Sentiment Slips Amid High Materials Prices, Labor Shortages

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell two points to a May index reading of 81. Readings above 50 indicate that most home builders are confident in market conditions, but builder sentiment has fallen from its peak reading of 90 before the pandemic. The NAHB Housing Market reached its lowest reading of 37 during the pandemic. Readings above 50 indicate that most builders surveyed were confident about housing market conditions.

Homebuilder confidence slipped due to higher home prices caused by high demand for homes. Builders have pulled back the pace of building homes due to rising lumber prices and potential buyers facing affordability concerns. While lumber prices remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels, they were 42 percent lower year-over-year.

Chuck Fowke, chairman of the NAHB, said, “These higher prices have priced new homes beyond the budget of prospective buyers,  which has slowed the strong pace of home building.” Low mortgage rates prompt buyers to enter the market, but home prices in many areas require mortgage loans that many buyers cannot afford.

Homebuilders continued to face shortages of skilled carpenters and other workers. These shortages also impact the price of homes and building pace. Shortages of new and pre-owned homes created high levels of buyer competition with multiple offers on available homes. In addition, some metro areas are seeing more cash offers, which make buying homes more difficult for buyers who depend on mortgages to purchase homes.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported 1.57 million housing starts in May on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.52 million starts were reported in April and 1.63 million starts were expected in May. Building permits issued in May fell to 1.63 million permits issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.73 million building permits were issued in April and analysts expected the same number of permits to be issued in May.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week with rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 2.93 percent and three basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were one basis point higher on average at 2.24 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were three basis points lower on average at 2.52 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Jobless claims were mixed last week as new jobless claims rose to 412,000 first-time claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 375,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 3.52 million claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on job openings, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Job Openings Increase as Employers Struggle to Fill Positions

Job openings rose in April according to the Labor Department, but workers were quitting jobs in record numbers. 9.30 million openings were reported as compared to expectations of 8.20 million job openings and 8.30 million job openings reported in March. Increasing job openings indicate a stronger post-pandemic economy as businesses and service providers return to full capacity. 

Employers faced multiple obstacles to filling job openings including early retirements taken during the pandemic, difficulty in finding childcare options, and continued fear of covid-19. Generous covid-19 benefits and jobless benefits delayed workers’ return to their jobs. Job openings in restaurants and hotels rose by 349,000 openings in April. About one-third of all job openings were unfilled in April. 

In other news, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks inflation, rose by 0.60 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of 0.80 percent growth. Analysts expected a reading of 0.50 percent for May. May’s reading was the fourth consecutive monthly increase in inflation since the pandemic. Higher used-car prices accounted for approximately a third of May’s inflation growth. 

The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.70 percent in May and was 3.80 percent higher year-over-year for a 29-year high.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell three basis points to 2.96 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.23 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.55 percent and were nine basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. 

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 376,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 370,000 new claims and the previous week’s reading of 385,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 3.50 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 3.76 million continuing claims filed.

The University of Michigan released initial results for its June Consumer Sentiment Index. June’s index reading was 86.4 as compared to the expected reading of 84.4 and May’s index reading of 82.9. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index along with Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will release its usual post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.