Navy Fellas Realty Group

Real Estate, Residential sales and purchase

Case-Shiller: June Home Prices Higher

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Case-Shiller: June Home Prices HigherS&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices reported new record gains for home prices in June. The National Home Price Index rose by a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 18.60 percent as compared to May’s home price increase rate of 16.80 percent. Home prices were 41 percent higher than they were during the 2006 housing boom; home price growth was driven by high demand for homes coupled with short supplies of homes for sale.  

20-City Home Price Index Posts Month-to-Month Home Price Gain of 2 Percent

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index posted a two percent gain in June as compared to May. Home prices rose by 19.10 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in June;  all 20 cities included in the index reported higher home prices. Phoenix, Arizona held first place for home price growth in June with a year-over-year price gain of 29.30 percent. San Diego, California held second place in the 20-City Home Price Index with a year-over-year price gain of 27.10 percent and Seattle Washington followed with year-over-year home price growth of 25.00 percent.

All 20 cities posted higher home price gains in June than in May. Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “In June all 20 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in June than they did in the 12 months ended in May.”

Analysts Say Current Home Price Growth is Unsustainable

Rapidly rising home prices sidelined would-be homebuyers who expressed concerns over the fast pace of home sales, and limited choices of available homes. Cash buyers and bidding wars continued to challenge mortgage-dependent homebuyers, but low mortgage rates continued to draw homebuyers into the market.

Covid fueled an exodus from congested urban areas to less populated areas inland. Families who modified their lifestyles to include working from home and homeschooling their children needed larger homes. As workers switched from commuting to work to telecommuting, they were no longer constrained by physical proximity to their employers, but now that businesses and workplaces are reopening, it’s unknown how or if pre-covid housing and work trends will be re-established or if covid era home-based work and schooling options will expand.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency released data on sales of single-family homes owned or mortgaged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 17.4 percent from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2021.FHFA reported that home prices rose 4.90 percent from the first quarter of 2021 through the second quarter of 2021, and were 1.60 percent higher for June 2021 than in May.

S&P Case-Schiller Indices Report Record Rise in Home Prices

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S&P Case-Schiller Indices Report Record Rise in Home PricesHome prices continued to rise at record rates in May according to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. National home prices rose by 16.60 percent year-over-year in May as compared to 14.80 percent year-over-year price growth in April. The 10-City Home Price Index reported home prices rose 16.40 percent year-over-year and 1.90 percent month-to-month.

20-City Home Price Index Reports 17 Percent Home Price Growth Year-Over-Year

S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported month-to-month home price growth of two percent in May as year-over-year home price gains rose from April’s reading of 15 percent to 17 percent year-over-year home price growth.

All cities participating in the 20-City Home Price Index reported home price gains in May. Three cities held their positions with top rates of home price growth. Phoenix Arizona held first place with year-over-year home price growth of 25.90 percent; San Diego, California reported 24.70 percent home price growth. Seattle Washington held third place with 23.40 percent year-over-year home price growth in May.

Home Price Growth Expected to Slow as Buyers Drop Out of Market

Craig Lazarra, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P down Jones Indices said he found himself “running out of superlatives to describe the record increases in home prices.” Analysts credited homebuyer relocation from urban areas to less populated suburban and rural areas for driving up prices. The pandemic initially drove this trend and continues to do so today. Other factors pushing home prices higher included high demand for homes exceeding homes available. As millennials reach their prime-home buying years, demand for homes will increase. Low mortgage rates also encouraged would-be home buyers into the housing market.

High demand for homes drives home prices up, but slower sales suggest that buyers are reaching a tipping point with affordability. Fewer buyers will raise the inventory of available homes and cause home prices to fall. First-time and moderate-income buyers continue to face affordability constraints in many areas, but home prices likely won’t fall significantly in the near term.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported similar readings for single-family homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 1.70 percent from April to May and 18.00 percent year-over-year in May. Readings from FHFA include seasonally-adjusted purchase-only data;  refinance transactions were not included.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 05, 2015

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Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week October 05 2015Last week’s economic reports included Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending and several reports on jobs and employment. The details:

Pending Home Sales Down as Home Prices Rise

Pending home sales dipped in August, which is consistent with the waning spring and summer peak sales period for homes. Pending home sales were down by -1.40 percent as compared to July’s gain of 0.50 percent. Pending home sales indicate future closings and mortgage loan volume.

Home prices rose in July according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which reported that home prices for the 20-City Home Price Index rose from June’s reading of 4.90 percent in June to 5.00 in July. Higher home prices contribute to falling home sales as fewer buyers can afford to enter the market.

Construction spending increased in August to a reading of 0.70 percent as compared to expectations of 0.60 percent growth and July’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Builder confidence readings suggest how builders view housing market conditions and can ultimately impact housing supplies and markets.

Mortgage Rates Tick Downward

Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was one basis point lower at 3.85 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also one basis point lower at 3.07 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at an average rate of 2.91 percent. Average discount points were mixed at 0.70, 0.60 and 0.50 percent respectively.

New Jobless Claims Rise; Unemployment Rate Holds Steady

New unemployment claims increased to 277,000 against expectations of 271,000 new jobless claims and the prior week’s reading of 267,000 new jobless claims. The national unemployment rate held steady at 5.10 percent, which supports analysts’ preference for using monthly data as opposed to volatile weekly readings for identifying and tracking economic trends.

ADP Payrolls reported 200,000 private sector jobs added in September as compared to August’s reading of 186,000 new private sector jobs added. The Commerce Department reported that Non-farm Payrolls grew by 142,000 jobs in September as compared to expectations of 200,000 new jobs and August’s reading of 136,000 jobs added.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include release the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting along with weekly releases of new jobless claims data and Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates.

National Association of REALTORS – Sales of Pre-Owned Homes Dip

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National Association of REALTORS Sales of PreOwned Homes Dip Sales of previously owned homes dropped in August by 4.80 percent on an annual basis for the first time in four months; the dip was likely caused by rising home prices. August sales were reported at a rate of 5.31 million; July’s rate was 5.58 million sales of previously owned homes.

Sales of existing homes have risen 6.20 percent year-over-year; stronger labor markets and low mortgage rates were seen as contributing factors. Although economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise its target federal funds rate before year end, home sales are expected to stay strong through 2016. A Fed rate hike would mean that lending rates for consumer credit and mortgage loans would increase.

Analysts noted that July sales of pre-owned homes hit a post-recession high and characterized August’s lower reading as a “hiccup.” Month-to-month readings often reflect volatility caused by transitory influences; analysts typically rely on month-to-month rolling averages to track trends in housing markets.

Home Sales Thwarted by Slim Supply of Available Homes

Low inventories of homes for sale are likely keeping sales of previously owned homes from achieving their potential. In August, there were 2.29 million homes on the market, which represents a 5.20 month supply under current market conditions. August’s volume of available homes was 1.70 percent lower than for August 2014.

The national median sale price for a home was $228,700 in August; this represents a year-over-year increase of 4.70 percent.

First-time Buyers Getting Back in the Game

First-time home buyers accounted for 32 percent of existing home sales in August as compared to a normal reading of 40 percent of existing home sales. Investors purchased 12 percent of pre-owned homes sold in August as compared to a post-recession high of 25 percent. Less competition from investors should allow more owner-occupant buyers to purchase homes without being priced out of bidding wars. 

On another positive note, distressed sales of pre-owned homes comprised only 7 percent of sales, this is a strong indication that the tide of post-recession foreclosures is ending. 

FHFA House Price Index Also Shows Higher Home Prices

FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices of homes associated with mortgages owned or backed by the two government-sponsored entities rose by 0.60 percent in July as compared to June’s reading of 0.20 percent. Home prices were up 5.80 percent year-over-year in July, which is 1.10 percent below the peak index reading of 2007 and was near the November 2006 index reading.

Year-over-year home price readings for the nine census divisions were all positive and ranged from + 2.20 percent in the New England division to +9.40 percent in the Mountain division. Month-to month house prices ranged from -1.20 percent in the New England division to +1.60 percent in the Mountain division.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slower in April

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Case Shiller Home Prices San Francisco Denver see Double Digit Increases

According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for April, home prices slowed from the March reading of 4.30 percent year-over-year to 4.20 percent year-over-year. David M Blitzer, Chairman of S&P Index Committee, said that home prices are not accelerating and characterized slower home price growth as “sustainable as compared to double-digit appreciation in home prices seen in 2013.”

The disparity between wage increases and home price growth was keeping would-be-buyers on the sidelines; so slower gains in home prices may bring more buyers into the market.

Denver Claims Top Spot for Year-Over-Year Home Price Growth

Denver, Colorado led home price appreciation in April according to Case-Shiller. The mile-high city posted a reading of10.30 percent year-over-year home price growth in April. San Francisco, California followed closely with a reading of 10.00 percent. Miami, Florida rounded out the top three price gains with a reading of 8.80 percent.

The lowest reading for year-over-year home price growth in April was posted by Washington D.C. with a reading of 1.10 percent. This was followed by Cleveland, Ohio with a reading of 1.30 percent and Boston, Massachusetts with a reading of 1.80 percent year-over-year home price growth.

Of the nine cities reporting higher year-over-year price gains, Las Vegas Nevada reported a gain of 6.30 percent in April as compared to a gain of 5.70 percent in March. Las Vegas was one of the hardest-hit housing markets during the recession.

Seattle Tops Month-to-Month Home Price Growth

Month-to-month price gains in April were led by Seattle Washington, which reported a home price gain of 2.30 percent. This reading was followed by San Francisco, California where home prices increased by 2.00 percent from March to April.

Denver rounded out the top three month-to-month price gains with a reading of 1.90 percent. Boston, Massachusetts reported the lowest month-to-month price growth with a reading of 0.30 percent followed by New York City’s reading of 0.50 percent and San Diego, California’s month-to-month gain of 0.60 percent.

In unrelated reports, the Commerce Department reported that pending home sales rose to their highest reading in more than nine years. Pending home sales rose by 10.40 percent year-over-year in May. Pending home sales are seen as a reliable indicator of future closings.

Case-Shiller: 20-City Home Price Index Hits 6 Month High

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Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Index Hits 6 Month HighAccording to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for February, month-to-month home prices increased by 0.50 percent from January’s reading and achieved the highest year-over-year gain in six months. Analysts expected February home prices to increase by 4.80 percent. David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Dow Jones index committee, said that home prices continue to rise and outpace both inflation and wage gains. Although this is great news for homeowners, it also demonstrates the challenge of affordability for home buyers.

Year-Over-Year Home Prices: Denver Leads in Home Price Gains

Home prices in Denver, Colorado increased by 10 percent year-over-year in February; San Francisco, California home prices gained 9.80 percent year-over-year. Miami, Florida home prices gained 9.20 percent year-over-year. Dallas, Texas and Portland, Oregon rounded out the top five cities with the highest year-over-year home price appreciation in February. Home prices in Dallas increased by 8.60 percent, while and Portland’s home prices gained 7.10 percent year-over-year.

February readings for year-over-year home price growth were lowest in Washington, DC at 1.40 percent. Cleveland, Ohio and New York, New York posted year-over-year gains of 2.30 and 2.50 percent respectively. Phoenix, Arizona home prices grew by 2.90 percent and Minneapolis, Minnesota home prices gained 3.10 percent year-over-year.

Chicago, Illinois and Detroit Michigan posted year-over-year gains of 3.40 percent and 3.7- percent. Both cities have shown the smallest gains in prior months but home prices are gaining in year-over-year readings.

San Francisco Tops Month-to-Month Home Price Growth

Price gains from January to February 2015 were led by San Francisco, California with a reading of 2.00 percent. Denver, Colorado home prices gained 1.40 percent; Seattle, Washington home prices gained 0.80 percent, and were followed closely by a gain of 0.80 percent in Los Angeles, California and a tie at 0.70 percent for Portland, Oregon and San Diego, California.

Cites showing negative readings and the lowest month-to-month price gains in February were Boston, Massachusetts at -0.20 percent; Cleveland, Ohio at -0.10 percent. Chicago held steady with 0.00 percent gain and Atlanta, Georgia and Minneapolis, Minnesota posted month-to-month gains of +0.10 percent.

Home prices remained about 16 percent below their 2006 peak at the end of February.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in 2015

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Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week March 30 2015According to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for January, home prices grew by 4.50 percent year-over-year as compared to  January 2014’s  year-over-year  price growth rate of 10.50 percent. This was the lowest rate of home price growth since 2012.

Analysts said that although slower growth in home prices could be good news for home buyers, national wage growth is not keeping pace with home price growth. The Labor Department reports that wages are growing at an annual rate of approximately two percent. Other obstacles to home buyers include strict mortgage standards and likely increases in mortgage rates during 2015.

Highest and Lowest Home Price Growth Rates in January

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports that January’s five highest rates of year-over-year home price growth were:

Denver, Colorado – 8.40%
Miami, Florida – 8.30%
Dallas, Texas – 8.10%
San Francisco, California – 7.90%
Portland, Oregon – 7.20%

The five cities with the lowest year-over-year rates of home price growth were:

Chicago, Illinois – 2.50%
Minneapolis, Minnesota – 2.20%
New York, New York – 2.10%
Cleveland, Ohio – 1.60%
Washington, D.C. – 1.30%

No cities included in the 20 city index recorded no or negative growth rates on a year-over-year basis.  David Blitzer, S&P Index Committee Chair, cited growing labor markets, current low mortgage rates, lower fuel prices and low inflation as positive influences on U.S. housing markets.

The Case Shiller 20-City Housing Index report for January was also impacted by severe weather conditions that reduced demand for homes.  The 20-City Index has climbed by 29 percent since reaching March 2012 lows.

Pending Home Sales Rise

In other housing related news, pending home sales indicate that home sales are increasing as the peak spring and summer buying season gets underway. The National Association of Realtors® reported that its pending home sale index reading increased by 3.10 percent to 106.9 in February.

This was the highest reading since June 2013 and was up 12.00 percent over February 2014.  Pending home sales are sales for which a contract has been signed, but the sale has not closed. Pending home sales are considered an indicator of future home sales.